Sample Our Reports, Presentations, & Market Insights
As the Q4 2022 reporting season winds down, earnings have been a disappointment. The beat rate is less than expected and the reporting "bounce" is among the smallest ever seen.
The latest updates to the consensus economic view are more of the same. A recession is coming, unemployment will soar, and inflation will return to 2%. This outlook has been wrong for over a year. With all the forecasting errors in the same...
A replay of our Febraury 23, 2023 conference call.
The press is looking for ways the drama over electing a Speaker of the House might impact the real world. They seem to have settled on it being a warning that a technical debt default is more likely. But there is a way to measure the likelihood of...
We believe rates have not peaked and will not peak until we see evidence of weakening wage growth. Until then, rates across the curve will shift higher in tandem as the Fed continues to hike rates into 2023.
Japan and China's holdings of Treasuries dropped again in October. A large part of this is simply a function of Treasuries' terrible returns. In the case of Japan, it may also be a sign of stress for the BoJ.
CPI came in well below expectations again in November. Projecting where inflation will be in several months is an impossible task, but running through several scenarios offers some perspective.
The Fed's cumulative losses now total over $13 billion.
As Quantitative Tightening (QT) and other tightening policies continue, the Federal Reserve's reverse repo facility is an essential piece to understanding how the Fed can potentially enact a smooth balance sheet reduction schedule.
Wall Street is forecasting a recession, soaring unemployment, collapsing inflation, and the worst profit outlook in at least a generation. But the hope is this could be bullish for stocks as it leads to a Fed pivot and another liquidity-driven rally.
Friday's payroll report was good; it showed an expanding economy. But in this "good news is bad news for markets" world, this good report tanked risk markets, especially NASDAQ stocks. Then Wall Street/investors spent all day convincing themselves...
In past years we highlighted the world’s aging population and its need for low-risk investments, noting that inflows into bond mutual funds and ETFs topped those of stock funds over the past decade. This divergence really began accelerating in the...