Economy
Employment in Pictures – Concern for the Labor Market
December 16, 2025
The birth-death model is likely overstating job creation, leading Powell to suggest payrolls might actually be contracting by 20k jobs per month since March.
The birth-death model is likely overstating job creation, leading Powell to suggest payrolls might actually be contracting by 20k jobs per month since March.
Join us Thursday, December 18, for our next conference call discussing the Fed's balancing of the dual mandate.
Commentary & analysis of selected stories on December 16, 2025
Join us Thursday, December 18, for our next conference call discussing the Fed's balancing of the dual mandate.
Commentary & analysis of selected stories on December 15, 2025
Economists have viewed lower monthly payrolls growth as a significant negative for the economy. Other indicators reject this and if you account for declining population growth, the labor market might actually be balanced.
Commentary & analysis of selected stories on December 12, 2025
The pandemic changed things, just as any economic shock does. The switch to remote work is an evolution of economic activity, not a pandemic-related symptom of something amiss.
A long-term look at the unemployment rate since 1869