- The Heritage Foundation – (February 6, 2023) Is U.S. Monthly Jobs Report Still Reliable or the Last Domino To Fall?
Another question on the reliability of our statistics lies in how these numbers are collected. The BLS relies on surveys to compose these reports, and the response rates for the surveys have been falling significantly. For example, the jobs openings figure—closely watched by the Federal Reserve—is from a survey with an appallingly low response rate of just 30.6 percent. There could be considerable bias in the surveys used by BLS, especially in the preliminary estimates which have the lowest response rates. Other statistical phenomena have also been affecting the headline jobs number, such as multiple job holders trending up while people shift from unincorporated self-employment to work elsewhere. Admittedly though, those trends and the other statistical anomalies may not entirely explain the very large increase in January’s nonfarm payrolls nor much of the increase over the last year.