Markets
The World of Negative-Yielding Bonds
March 7, 2019
With 10-year yields near the low end of their range of the past year, negative-yielding debt still makes up almost a third of all global sovereign debt.
Our Research
Sample Our Reports, Presentations, & Market Insights
Central Banks
Will the Fed and Markets Get Back on the Same Page?
February 28, 2019
Ending balance sheet reductions this year will go a long way to getting the Fed and markets back on the same page.
Inflation
The Most Important Driver of Inflation?
February 27, 2019
The Fed thinks everything begins with inflation expectations. This is a dubious idea that is next to impossible to measure.
Media
SFBTA Conference Handout: Economic Update
February 11, 2019
Our handout for the Florida Bond Traders Association Annual Conference.
Bonds
The Indexation of the High Yield Market
February 7, 2019
Traders continue to use the high yield index market as a hedge rather than trading the underlying bonds. This is a strategy that works while liquidity exists, but could pose serious problems in volatile markets.
Conference Call
Conference Call Replay – Can the Fed’s Dovish Tone Outweigh...
January 25, 2019
A replay of our January 25, 2019 conference call.
Media
CFA Los Angeles Annual Forecasting Dinner Handout
January 23, 2019
Jim Bianco's handout for his presentation at the CFA Los Angeles Annual Forecasting Dinner on January 23, 2019.
Earnings
2019 Earnings Are a Concern
January 7, 2019
Q4 2018 S&P 500 operating earnings estimates look good, but this is the last quarter benefiting from the corporate tax cuts. As analysts focus on 2019, the story gets worrisome.
Markets
Economic Data and Monetary Policy Rule the Roost, Not Trade
December 3, 2018
Do not become overly wrapped up in short-term reactions produced by trade policy headlines. Slowing global economic data changes and heightened monetary policy uncertainty continue to rule the roost.
Data Reports
Monthly Fund Flows – Detailing Active and Passive Flows
December 3, 2018
Fund flows through October 2018.
Markets
Fed and Markets as Data Dependent as Ever
November 23, 2018
Seasonality suggests U.S. economic data and rate hike timing rise into year-end. However a slowing global economy puts heavy pressure on the U.S. as a lone performer. Volatility should remain high around key U.S. data releases given both the Federal...
Markets
Falling Oil Prices to Test the Bank of Canada
November 14, 2018
Potential weakness in the housing market and the drop in oil prices will test the Bank of Canada's hawkish intentions.