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Global synchronized slowing is taking hold, but the U.S. and Latin America remain out-performers for now. Safe assets and the U.S. dollar have performed quite well during similar instances in the past.
The longest risk off cycle since December 2016 marches on, now at 37 trading days. Treasuries have underperformed versus typical risk off cycles.
Consumers are finding other things to do with the time they used to spend shopping. We see headwinds for retailers, especially in the home improvement space.
The U.S. 5-year 30-year spread is poised to flatten with investor positioning reaching steepening extremes and the Federal Reserve committed to normalizing policy.
U.S. inflation expectations have become too pessimistic and a forgotten concern to degrees favoring widening in the weeks ahead.
The financial media, consumers and the Federal Reserve do not have the same concerns or issues on their radar screens. Uncertainty is rising across financial media and investors.
The Federal Reserve has become true believers in a strong U.S. economy, but equity and bond investors are pushing back given shifting risk-off flows.
Signs point to Treasury outperformance in the next phase of the longest risk-off cycle since December 2016.
Investors in U.S. Treasuries are shunning global economic data changes, placing most of their chips on U.S. growth. A breakout by inflation expectations is needed to extend the bearish slide on path to reach extremes according to ETF flows.
An inventory build-up is likely with search trends for shipping far exceeding those of consumer spending and capital expenditures. We expect the transportation industry to offer sub-par returns through year-end.
All-time highs in the discussion of the 'neutral rate' are coinciding with elevated monetary policy uncertainty. Higher U.S. Treasury yields will demand realized inflation and a continuation of favorable consumer trends.
Average wage growth near 3.0% year-over-year is masking a significant divergence between manufacturing and services labor. Their gap in growth currently nearing 2.0% has historically explained waves of physical and mental stress felt by consumers.