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Traders continue to use the high yield index market as a hedge rather than trading the underlying bonds. This is a strategy that works while liquidity exists, but could pose serious problems in volatile markets.
A replay of our January 25, 2019 conference call.
Jim Bianco's handout for his presentation at the CFA Los Angeles Annual Forecasting Dinner on January 23, 2019.
Q4 2018 S&P 500 operating earnings estimates look good, but this is the last quarter benefiting from the corporate tax cuts. As analysts focus on 2019, the story gets worrisome.
Do not become overly wrapped up in short-term reactions produced by trade policy headlines. Slowing global economic data changes and heightened monetary policy uncertainty continue to rule the roost.
Fund flows through October 2018.
Seasonality suggests U.S. economic data and rate hike timing rise into year-end. However a slowing global economy puts heavy pressure on the U.S. as a lone performer. Volatility should remain high around key U.S. data releases given both the Federal...
Potential weakness in the housing market and the drop in oil prices will test the Bank of Canada's hawkish intentions.
Global synchronized slowing is taking hold, but the U.S. and Latin America remain out-performers for now. Safe assets and the U.S. dollar have performed quite well during similar instances in the past.
The longest risk off cycle since December 2016 marches on, now at 37 trading days. Treasuries have underperformed versus typical risk off cycles.
Consumers are finding other things to do with the time they used to spend shopping. We see headwinds for retailers, especially in the home improvement space.
The U.S. 5-year 30-year spread is poised to flatten with investor positioning reaching steepening extremes and the Federal Reserve committed to normalizing policy.