Markets
Inflation, a Forgotten Concern
November 7, 2018
U.S. inflation expectations have become too pessimistic and a forgotten concern to degrees favoring widening in the weeks ahead.
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Markets
Investors, the Fed, and Media Can’t Agree on What Matters
November 5, 2018
The financial media, consumers and the Federal Reserve do not have the same concerns or issues on their radar screens. Uncertainty is rising across financial media and investors.
Markets
Fed and Markets Disagree on Strength of Economy
October 25, 2018
The Federal Reserve has become true believers in a strong U.S. economy, but equity and bond investors are pushing back given shifting risk-off flows.
Markets
Treasuries May Get a Boost as Risk-Off Cycle Evolves
October 25, 2018
Signs point to Treasury outperformance in the next phase of the longest risk-off cycle since December 2016.
Markets
USTs Shun the Global Picture
October 22, 2018
Investors in U.S. Treasuries are shunning global economic data changes, placing most of their chips on U.S. growth. A breakout by inflation expectations is needed to extend the bearish slide on path to reach extremes according to ETF flows.
Markets
Shipping Trends Outpacing Consumer Demand and Capex
October 18, 2018
An inventory build-up is likely with search trends for shipping far exceeding those of consumer spending and capital expenditures. We expect the transportation industry to offer sub-par returns through year-end.
Markets
Monetary Policy Uncertainty Brews With Heaviest Discussion of...
October 17, 2018
All-time highs in the discussion of the 'neutral rate' are coinciding with elevated monetary policy uncertainty. Higher U.S. Treasury yields will demand realized inflation and a continuation of favorable consumer trends.
Markets
Diverging Wage Growth Explains Waves of Consumer Stress
October 15, 2018
Average wage growth near 3.0% year-over-year is masking a significant divergence between manufacturing and services labor. Their gap in growth currently nearing 2.0% has historically explained waves of physical and mental stress felt by consumers.
Markets
Grant’s Interest Rate Observer Conference Presentation
October 9, 2018
Comment Jim Bianco will be presenting the following material later today at the Grant’s Interest Rate Observer Conference in New York. View PDF
Media
Jim Bianco on Fed Killing the Recovery, Kavanaugh Political Aftermath
October 7, 2018
Financial Sense Newshour welcomes Jim Bianco at Bianco Research to discuss the recent breakout in 10-year yields to a seven-year high, and what this means for stocks, bonds, and the overall market. Bianco says traditional money managers and...
Markets
Revisiting The Change In The Stock/Bond Relationship
October 5, 2018
We believe the stock/bond relationship is transitioning from a deflation mindset back to a 1970s to 1990s inflation mindset. Such transitions are long and messy. These transitions also make the most important decision in investing, the asset...
Markets
Long-end Yield Breakout Exciting? Not Yet…
October 4, 2018
U.S. 10-year notes have struggled to continue bearish breakouts from ultra-tight trading ranges. A drive to higher yields requires inflation expectations leaving behind their well-anchored condition.