Markets
What Will the Fed Do Next Week?
March 15, 2023
In this confusing environment, we believe the Fed will take its cue from the stock market in deciding what to do next week.
Our Research
Sample Our Reports, Presentations, & Market Insights
Data Reports
Employment in Pictures – Payrolls Beat an 11th Straight Time
March 10, 2023
Payrolls beat expectations for a record 11th straight month. Despite another beat, the fed funds market remains split on whether the Fed will hike 25 basis points or 50 basis points on March 22.
Talking Data Podcast
Talking Data – The Problem With Surveys: Payrolls Edition
March 9, 2023
In the latest installment of Talking Data, Jim discusses the payrolls survey and survey response rates.
Markets
Understanding 0DTE Part 1: Measuring Volatility
March 7, 2023
While intraday volatility rises, longer-term volatility remains subdued. Traditional measures of volatility are being questioned. Understanding how this happened might give a clue as to where the risk lies.
Markets
The Problem With Surveys: Payroll Report Edition
March 7, 2023
Many government statistics are collected via surveys. As with political polls, the public is souring on answering them. The result is lower response rates and larger error rates.
Earnings
Q4 Earnings Update: Bleak Earnings Season Might Spell Trouble for...
March 6, 2023
As the Q4 2022 reporting season winds down, earnings have been a disappointment. The beat rate is less than expected and the reporting "bounce" is among the smallest ever seen.
Talking Data Podcast
Talking Data – What the Consensus Continues to Miss
March 2, 2023
In the latest installment of Talking Data, Jim discusses expectations for a recession and the role of rates.
Markets
What the Consensus Continues to Miss
March 1, 2023
The latest updates to the consensus economic view are more of the same. A recession is coming, unemployment will soar, and inflation will return to 2%. This outlook has been wrong for over a year. With all the forecasting errors in the same...
Conference Call
A Big Change in Two Weeks
February 21, 2023
A replay of our Febraury 23, 2023 conference call.
Markets
How Worried Is the Market About Debt Default?
January 6, 2023
The press is looking for ways the drama over electing a Speaker of the House might impact the real world. They seem to have settled on it being a warning that a technical debt default is more likely. But there is a way to measure the likelihood of debt default in the Treasury bill market, and it is not showing much concern.
Talking Data Podcast
Talking Data: The Fed vs. the Markets
December 21, 2022
In the latest installment of Talking Data, Jim discusses the labor markets and the hopes for a Fed pivot.
Markets
What’s Next for Rates?
December 16, 2022
We believe rates have not peaked and will not peak until we see evidence of weakening wage growth. Until then, rates across the curve will shift higher in tandem as the Fed continues to hike rates into 2023.