Markets
The Problem With Surveys: Payroll Report Edition
March 7, 2023
Many government statistics are collected via surveys. As with political polls, the public is souring on answering them. The result is lower response rates and larger error rates.
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Earnings
Q4 Earnings Update: Bleak Earnings Season Might Spell Trouble for...
March 6, 2023
As the Q4 2022 reporting season winds down, earnings have been a disappointment. The beat rate is less than expected and the reporting "bounce" is among the smallest ever seen.
Talking Data Podcast
Talking Data – What the Consensus Continues to Miss
March 2, 2023
In the latest installment of Talking Data, Jim discusses expectations for a recession and the role of rates.
Markets
What the Consensus Continues to Miss
March 1, 2023
The latest updates to the consensus economic view are more of the same. A recession is coming, unemployment will soar, and inflation will return to 2%. This outlook has been wrong for over a year. With all the forecasting errors in the same...
Conference Call
A Big Change in Two Weeks
February 21, 2023
A replay of our Febraury 23, 2023 conference call.
Markets
How Worried Is the Market About Debt Default?
January 6, 2023
The press is looking for ways the drama over electing a Speaker of the House might impact the real world. They seem to have settled on it being a warning that a technical debt default is more likely. But there is a way to measure the likelihood of debt default in the Treasury bill market, and it is not showing much concern.
Talking Data Podcast
Talking Data: The Fed vs. the Markets
December 21, 2022
In the latest installment of Talking Data, Jim discusses the labor markets and the hopes for a Fed pivot.
Markets
What’s Next for Rates?
December 16, 2022
We believe rates have not peaked and will not peak until we see evidence of weakening wage growth. Until then, rates across the curve will shift higher in tandem as the Fed continues to hike rates into 2023.
Data Reports
TIC Update – Japan & China’s Treasury Holdings Drop...
December 16, 2022
Japan and China's holdings of Treasuries dropped again in October. A large part of this is simply a function of Treasuries' terrible returns. In the case of Japan, it may also be a sign of stress for the BoJ.
Conference Call
The Assumptions For 2023
December 15, 2022
Join us Thursday, December 15 for our next conference call.
Data Reports
Inflation Watch – A Light at the End of the Tunnel
December 13, 2022
CPI came in well below expectations again in November. Projecting where inflation will be in several months is an impossible task, but running through several scenarios offers some perspective.
Talking Data Podcast
Talking Data: Are Short-Expiration Options Driving Intraday...
December 9, 2022
In the latest installment of Talking Data, Alex discusses short-expiration options and intraday market volatility.