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As the Q4 2022 reporting season winds down, earnings have been a disappointment. The beat rate is less than expected and the reporting "bounce" is among the smallest ever seen.
In the latest installment of Talking Data, Jim discusses expectations for a recession and the role of rates.
The latest updates to the consensus economic view are more of the same. A recession is coming, unemployment will soar, and inflation will return to 2%. This outlook has been wrong for over a year. With all the forecasting errors in the same...
A replay of our Febraury 23, 2023 conference call.
The press is looking for ways the drama over electing a Speaker of the House might impact the real world. They seem to have settled on it being a warning that a technical debt default is more likely. But there is a way to measure the likelihood of debt default in the Treasury bill market, and it is not showing much concern.
In the latest installment of Talking Data, Jim discusses the labor markets and the hopes for a Fed pivot.
We believe rates have not peaked and will not peak until we see evidence of weakening wage growth. Until then, rates across the curve will shift higher in tandem as the Fed continues to hike rates into 2023.
Japan and China's holdings of Treasuries dropped again in October. A large part of this is simply a function of Treasuries' terrible returns. In the case of Japan, it may also be a sign of stress for the BoJ.
Join us Thursday, December 15 for our next conference call.
CPI came in well below expectations again in November. Projecting where inflation will be in several months is an impossible task, but running through several scenarios offers some perspective.
In the latest installment of Talking Data, Alex discusses short-expiration options and intraday market volatility.
The Fed's cumulative losses now total over $13 billion.