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Q1 2019 earnings seasons gets underway this week with Delta and Bed Bath and Beyond reporting. On Friday, many large financials report earnings. Analysts continue to expect a poor quarter.
At some point, the Federal Reserve will have to figure out a different way of conducting policy. They can't simply walk away from IOER, because that is effectively how they control interest rates.
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A replay of our January 25, 2019 conference call
Although the concept of modern monetary theory has been around for some time, Ben Bernanke laid much of the groundwork for applying it to real-life scenarios.
What will they talk about?
No signs of bottoming
With 10-year yields near the low end of their range of the past year, negative-yielding debt still makes up almost a third of all global sovereign debt.
Ending balance sheet reductions this year will go a long way to getting the Fed and markets back on the same page.
The Fed thinks everything begins with inflation expectations. This is a dubious idea that is next to impossible to measure.
Our handout for the Florida Bond Traders Association Annual Conference.
Traders continue to use the high yield index market as a hedge rather than trading the underlying bonds. This is a strategy that works while liquidity exists, but could pose serious problems in volatile markets.