Sample Commentary
Charts of the Week

How Worried Is the Market About Debt Default?

The press is looking for ways the drama over electing a Speaker of the House might impact the real world. They seem to have settled on it being a warning that a technical debt default is more likely. But there is a way to measure the likelihood of debt default in the Treasury bill market, and it is not showing much concern.... Read More

Newsclips

What’s Next for Rates?

We believe rates have not peaked and will not peak until we see evidence of weakening wage growth. Until then, rates across the curve will shift higher in tandem as the Fed continues to hike rates into 2023.... Read More

Charts of the Week

An Update on Reverse Repo

As Quantitative Tightening (QT) and other tightening policies continue, the Federal Reserve's reverse repo facility is an essential piece to understanding how the Fed can potentially enact a smooth balance sheet reduction schedule. ... Read More

Newsclips

The 2023 Bull Case Is a Recession!

Wall Street is forecasting a recession, soaring unemployment, collapsing inflation, and the worst profit outlook in at least a generation. But the hope is this could be bullish for stocks as it leads to a Fed pivot and another liquidity-driven rally.... Read More