Sample Commentary

What Kind of Restart Will We Have?

At some point, the economy will have to restart and people will return to work, but many questions remain. What will a restart look like? What kind of economic life will we return to? The economy needs to regain nearly 100% of its pre-virus activity to avoid a long stagnation. Georgia's reopening this week should provide a window into our economic future.... Read More

The End of the Central Bank Put?

Central banks fired all their weapons to stop markets from declining, but U.S. stock futures are locked limit down as we write. The central bank "put" no longer works. If risk markets make new lows, regulators and government officials may have no choice but to close the financial markets to prevent chaos and lasting damage.... Read More

The Moment in This Decline Has Arrived

Friday, the 13th, between 7:45AM ET and 9:00AM ET the Fed will offer the massive sum of $1.175 trillion in liquidity (repo) in an attempt to help dysfunctional financial markets. If it works, and liquidity returns, financial markets should resemble normalcy. If it does not, and continued liquidation and illiquidity remain, the next option might be a temporary closure of financial markets.... Read More

Coronavirus Charts for January 16, 2020 (Day 16)

Below is our collection of coronavirus charts updated through Day 16 of reporting, January 31, 2020. First An Observation – A Hard Arithmetic Limit In Virus Growth? Many news reports suggest that the Chinese are limited in their health facilities... Read More

China and the Global Supply Chain

Many economists are hoping for the best and assuming any economic impact from the coronavirus will be minimal. Because of the exponential growth rate of these types of outbreaks, it is nearly impossible to asses the true economic impact until the growth rate begins to subside. Several metrics will bear watching in the coming days to gauge the potential economic fallout.... Read More

Coronavirus Growth Rates and Market Reactions

The growth in coronavirus infections has continued along a geometric progression for the last 12 days. While not overlooking the human tragedy, the markets have the difficult task of pricing an event that has a small chance of being devastating to global growth, but a more likely outcome of being contained.... Read More