Markets
Consumer Trends and Positioning Favor Cheaper U.S. 10-Year Note
October 3, 2018
Consumer trends and ETFs versus futures positioning are favoring a cheaper U.S. 10-year brought on by steepening at the front-end of the Treasury curve.
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Markets
Constructing a Diversified Portfolio Harder Than Ever
October 2, 2018
Creating a diversified portfolio is harder than ever in a period of positive correlations among nearly all major asset class returns. A brief focus on rising inflation has faded with attention now turning to the convergence in economic growth between...
Politics
More On The Event That Will Turn The Midterms
September 28, 2018
Events in Washington yesterday will be a factor in the midterm elections. Given our polarized nature, the Kavanaugh hearing will only influence a small percentage of voters. These voters will determine the outcome of the midterm elections.
Markets
Inflation Expectations on the Brink, Will They Let Us Down Yet Again?
September 27, 2018
Inflation expectations are knocking on the ceiling, threatening to finally break out above the best levels of 2017. But, long-end yields have tended to drop in the days following past hikes.
Central Banks
The Cage Match Between Investors and the Federal Reserve
September 26, 2018
We have a very hard time believing core inflation will break high enough from 2.0% to warrant the Federal Reserve taking the target rate above the estimated long-term neutral rate at approximately 3.0%. Markets beginning to believe the target rate...
Markets
Higher Rates Making Waves in Financial Sector Credit
September 26, 2018
Treasury yields challenging range highs have credit market investors shifting their exposure to financial sector credits. Recent tightening in longer-dated bank spreads may be just the beginning in inflation expectations push rates higher.
Markets
Can Higher Rates Boost Financials?
September 25, 2018
Financial markets are braced for a hawkish statement from the Fed as it pushes financial markets to expect more rate hikes in 2019. Will higher rates be a windfall for the financial sector?
Markets
Leverage a Growing Concern, but Economic Momentum a Strong Buffer
September 24, 2018
Financial leverage continues to exceed long-term averages, meaning rising U.S. 10-year real yields above 1.0% could impair near and current so-called zombie companies. However, economic momentum overtaking inflation would likely reduce this risk....
Politics
Our Polarized Politics
September 14, 2018
U.S. politics is the most polarized it has been since at least the Civil War, and this simply reflects the divergence in opinions among the public. All indications are the midterm election results will make this even more extreme, not less.
Markets
Inflation Expectations, the De Facto Fed Chairman
September 14, 2018
The great showdown between the Fed and markets over the path of inflation intensifies. Markets will not move toward Fed expectations for five hikes in the next twelve months until inflation expectations break out to the upside.
Markets
Consumer Interest in ‘Going Out on the Town’ Surging
September 13, 2018
Retailing and technology industries are rich to fair value estimates, but consumer services look apt to play catch-up and outperform in the months ahead. Search trends for 'going out' are surging heading into the fall of 2018.
Markets
Will 625 Bps Move the Needle?
September 13, 2018
Rate hikes in Turkey might be a shot in the arm for emerging markets at a potent time. Global economic growth is at a potential inflection point and the ties between risk markets and industrial metals are the tightest in years.