As the world is focused on European energy, COVID is again rising in China and zero COVID lockdowns are now impacting over a third of their economy, the highest in over 18 months. This is going to again snarl an already struggling global supply chain.
Today's topics include liquidity problems for the energy industry, price caps, Russia keeps Nord Stream offline, estimating the damage to Russian economy, higher costs passing through to producers, an extra $2 trillion for European energy bills, concerns over QT, the surging dollar, and bearish British pound sentiment
Today's payrolls release simply sets the table for the September 13 CPI report. With the labor market looking strong, the Fed continues to have enough cover to hike several more times. Questions still remain about the Fed's eventual terminal rate, but that will come into focus as the data unfolds.
Today's topics include bonds enter bear market, distressed debt, ARK sees outflows but investors still holding on, mortgage rates rise, looking at the housing market, market - economy disconnect, more on the Fed's path, and on the European energy crisis
Even as the Fed ramps up the Treasury portion of their monthly QT runoff to $60B per month, they will not have to actively sell any notes or bonds until after 2024.
Roughly 8% of the BofA High Yield Index currently trades at distressed levels.
U.S. Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) account for about one-quarter of the trading on U.S. stock and options exchanges.
Inflation across the globe is at levels not seen in the last 40 years. Housing has been one of the main factors of persistent inflation and soaring rent prices are a consequence.
Light rail usage in San Francisco remains just a third of pre-pandemic levels, perhaps because so many tech workers remain remote.
The latest data shows Democrats have a polling lead over Republicans in the generic ballot. The Senate is now favored to stay in Democrat control as Republicans struggle in two important races. The House is expected to flip to Republican control.