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Will a Higher Terminal Rate Result in Higher 10-Year Yields?
September 20, 2022
As hawkish talk continues, the forward curve is pricing in a higher terminal rate. This pushes up the 2-year yield. If the yield curve holds its current spread, the 10-year should also shift higher.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
September 20, 2022
Today's topics include an eye on the Fed's SEP tomorrow, hikes & housing, shelter's effect on inflation, mortgage payments, bond trading is interesting again, where will the pain show?, decrease in Russian gas revenues, negative rates almost extinct, and has work fundamentally changed?
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Cartoons
September 20, 2022
Newsclips
TIC Update – Foreigners Sold Another Big Chunk of U.S. Equities in July
September 19, 2022
Foreigners sold their second largest total of U.S. equities on record in July.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
September 19, 2022
Today's topics include rate hikes around the world, wages & inflation, treasury market liquidity, stocks vs. bonds, ominous sign for the housing market, return to office, bulls vs. bears, credit card debt, trading like a politician, and who is the second richest person in the world?, has work fundamentally changed?
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Cartoons
September 19, 2022
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Midterm Update
September 16, 2022
The latest data shows Democrats have a polling lead over Republicans in the generic ballot. The Senate is now favored to stay in Democrat control while the House is expected to flip to Republican control. The prediction market patterns suggest bettors are open to the idea that Republicans are being undercounted in the polls.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
September 16, 2022
Today's topics include BofA says lows aren't in yet, higher rates for longer, wrong on inflation?, global tightening, Chinese property crisis, extreme inversion, more strikes, watching corporates, the dollar, and adapting markets
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Cartoons
September 16, 2022
Charts of the Week
The Pressure Is on the BoJ
September 16, 2022
The pressure is back on the Bank of Japan as 10-year JGB rates hover around their preferred upper limit of 0.25%.
Charts of the Week
Breaking Down the Reverse Repo Program
September 16, 2022
With all eyes on the expansion of Quantitative tightening (QT) in September, the Federal Reserve's reverse repo facility is an essential piece to understanding how the Fed can potentially enact a smooth balance sheet reduction schedule.