Equity markets have yet to show full panic even as macro headwinds grow. With flows and volatility showing no signs of capitulation, we are unlikely at a bottom until positioning shifts.
Today's topics include interpreting bearish sentiment, UK officials go into prevent defense, going too far, recession odds, more on the British pound & gilts, Gundlach catching the falling bond market knife, cash is king, looking at UK stocks, remote work's effect on house prices, earnings crunch coming, Cathie Wood still sees chance of Fed pivot, and FTX expands crypto reach
A replay of our September 29, 2022 conference call
The labor market is not showing signs of faltering, which is only adding to fears the Fed will continue hiking. Stress is showing in the markets, however.
Today's topics include updating bonds' rough year, the pound's freefall, emerging market currencies vs. developed country currencies, hedging for a plunge, market instability, IMF loans hit a new high, John Paulson not worried about housing, and the IPO market
In Chairman Powell's press conference on Wednesday, he said the Fed would like to see interest rates "across the entire yield curve" move above the inflation. If positive real rates are the goal, rates have to move another 100 basis points higher.
Today's topics include an eye on UK yields, where does global tightening lead us, thematic ETF's seem like they don't work, asset prices face reality, reverse repo makes a new high, residential real estate becomes a focus, big moves in treasuries, world economies' balancing act, retail opportunity in private equity?, housing bubble losing air, and the yen is only the start
A look at outstanding amounts of Treasuries, corporates, agencies, munis and open market paper
The amount of outstanding private credit in the U.S. experienced a brief decline during the financial crisis, but government debt grew throughout the entire period. Both are now at new highs.