Brexit negotiations continue with no clear resolution. Until an endpoint is clear, the UK economy remains at risk of grinding to a halt.... Read More
An early look at the 2020 elections via the betting markets... Read More
On the heels of Michael Cohen's sentencing, the topic of a Trump impeachment has reached a crescendo on cable news channels. Some have suggested this chatter is taking a toll on the markets. We examine this possibility in several different ways, ultimately finding no real relationship.... Read More
The midterm election earlier this month had a turnout of 49.2%, the highest in over a century.... Read More
In the final update before election day, House control is expected to flip to the Democrats as betting markets are trading in the high 60s/low 70s. The Senate is still expected to remain Republican as the betting markets are near 90%.... Read More
House control betting broke out on record volume in favor of the Democrats. The Senate is still considered a lock for the Republicans.... Read More
An update of the consensus view on the upcoming midterm elections... Read More
The odds for a Democrat-controlled House jumped yesterday.... Read More
A look at Trump's latest approval ratings as the midterm election draws near... Read More
Updating the latest metrics on the midterm election... Read More
An update of the latest metrics on the midterm elections. House control is still expected to go to the Democrats but their lead is diminishing. The Senate is still a lock for the Republicans.... Read More
House control is still expected to go to the Democrats, but their lead is weakening. The Senate is still a lock for the Republicans.... Read More
Although Democrats still hold a 64% chance to take the House according to the betting markets, their lead over Republicans has begun to diminish with only twelve days to go before the midterms.... Read More
With less than two weeks to go before the midterms, we will update our charts/metrics of election expectations daily.... Read More
The midterm elections are now two weeks away. The consensus continues to forecast a highly unusual outcome where the Democrats pick up House seats and the Republicans pick up Senate seats. Trump's approval rating has jumped to a five-month high.... Read More
The midterm elections are now less than three weeks away. The consensus is now forecasting a highly unusual outcome where the Democrats pick up House seats and the Republicans pick up Senate Seats. What explains this? The House looks like the popular vote and the Senate looks like the Electoral College.... Read More
Based on the number of pages in the Federal Register, Trump's wave of deregulation may have run its course.... Read More
Detailing every approval poll of Trump since his inauguration... Read More
The midterm elections are three weeks from today. Democrats continue to hold a sizable lead in the House while Republicans hold a lead in the Senate. However, below the surface, these races might be closer than they appear.... Read More
We have argued the Kavanaugh confirmation is the biggest event that will influence the midterm elections. Initially, it was positive for Republicans, motivating dormant Republican voters. This effect appears to be leveling off, but has not yet reversed.... Read More