We believe Trump's approval rating is the second most important factor, after the bond market, in changing his economic agenda. Currently, an approval rating of 46% is not low enough to prompt a change.... Read More
Defense spending, and who pays for it, is quickly becoming one of the most significant economic issues today. Who spends on defense and what "defense spending" means will dramatically impact fiscal budgets for years. This applies to both the U.S. and Europe/Canada.... Read More
If effective, Trump's new policy against the Houthis could open the Red Sea, impact shipping costs, and lower inflation.... Read More
Trump's recent policies, especially tariffs, have roiled markets. Will the drop in risk markets force him to change course? It all depends on whether he maintains public support.... Read More
Are Democrat members of Congress such good investors that they can not only beat Republicans but also do something about 85% of professional investors cannot do, beat the S&P 500?... Read More
Betting markets are discounting a Republican/Trump victory. Financial markets impacted by the election's outcome are trading the same way.... Read More
This week's update looks at presidential betting, Electoral College betting, the polls, the election models and the potential of a red wave.... Read More
The betting markets are taking their lead from the simple average such as the one calculated by Real Clear Politics. In other words, betting markets follow an identifiable rationale and are not diverging into a random pattern that would be associated with manipulation.... Read More
We will update the political charts every week until election day to show the latest odds. The data suggests this race remains too close to call.... Read More
While the odds of a Harris presidency have been trending higher post-debate, the broad measures of betting markets, polling averages, and models are best described as too close to call. The election is now forty-three days away.... Read More
The data suggests this race is too close to call. Last week (pre-debate), Trump had a slight lead among bettors. This week, Harris has a slight lead. Post-debate polls will be rolling in next week.... Read More
The race is too close to call in this installment, with Trump trending slightly better. The debate is Tuesday, September 10, which could significantly change candidates' odds in the coming days.... Read More
Prediction markets show Biden's odds of being the Democrat nominee for the presidential election took a hit after the most recent debate. Trump's odds have not risen despite the uncertainty about the Democrat nominee.... Read More
An aggregation of polls shows Trump leads, in sharp contrast to 2020 and 2016.... Read More
The average age of the Senate is the oldest in history. The average age of a member of the House has ticked down from its record in recent years. Democrats are now older than Republicans.... Read More
The number of pages in the Federal Register ticked slightly higher in 2022. With government being divided in 2023, it may prove difficult for legislators to push through a lot of new laws.... Read More
Now that the Georgia Senate race is over, where do things stand politically?... Read More
On Election Day, the final set of polls, models, and bets are in. The Republicans look to sweep into the majority of the House and lean favorably to take the majority of the Senate. We soon find out how accurate these predictions are.... Read More
The midterm elections are Tuesday. Polls and betting markets continue to favor Republicans.... Read More
Polling has gotten more expensive. After years of bad calls, fewer are being conducted. For those that are left, even progressive political forecasters expect the polls to undercount Republicans.... Read More