China's holdings of U.S. Treasuries has fallen almost every month since February 2021.... Read More
February's CPI data came in pretty much as expected. Next month will prove critical for lower year-over-year inflation. A high month-over-month number from March 2022 will roll off the yearly calculation, allowing for a more drastic drop in year-over-year inflation. Projecting where inflation will be in several months is an impossible task, but running through several scenarios offers some perspective.... Read More
Easy come, easy go. While bonds got off to a fast start in January, February's returns were almost the mirror opposite from a total return standpoint. Over a longer timeframe, this remains one of the worst drawdowns the bond market has experienced.... Read More
Differentiating 'allocator' ETF flows from 'trader' ETF flows... Read More
Holdings of U.S. Treasuries declined slightly in China and Japan in December, mimicking the small drop in Treasury total returns.... Read More
Month-over-month CPI was deflationary for the first time since May 2020. The year-over-year numbers are heading in the right direction and will likely continue to do so for the next several months. Come July, this dynamic could possibly change.... Read More
January's labor market data underwent many revisions. That being said, the data continues to surprise economists to the upside. In a welcome sign to Fed officials, wage growth continued lower.... Read More
After last year's miserable returns, both stocks and bonds got off to a fast start in 2023.... Read More
Despite a massive discrepancy in returns since QE began in 2009, bond funds have seen much larger inflows than stock funds.... Read More
A look at the size of various markets compared to the U.S. economy... Read More
Japan and China's holdings of Treasuries dropped materially over the past several months. A large part of this is simply a function of Treasuries' terrible returns. In the case of Japan, it may also be a sign of stress for the BoJ.... Read More
Month-over-month CPI was deflationary for the first time since May 2020. The year-over-year numbers are heading in the right direction and will likely continue to do so for the next several months. Come July, this dynamic could possibly change.... Read More
Payrolls beat expectations for a record ninth month in a row. On a three-month annualized basis, wage growth outpaced core inflation for the first time in over a year.... Read More
2022 was a year most investors would rather forget, with both stocks and bonds falling in tandem and very few major assets providing positive returns.... Read More
Differentiating 'allocator' ETF flows from 'trader' ETF flows... Read More
Payrolls beat estimates for the eighth straight month. The markets took this upside beat in stride, keeping an eye on the upcoming inflation release.... Read More
Both U.S. and global bond total returns bounced back in a big way in November. However, one positive month is a drop in the bucket compared to the year's miserable returns.... Read More
Index funds have accounted for an increasingly larger portion of ETF and mutual funds' assets under management over the past decade.... Read More
Japan's holdings of U.S. Treasury securities fell almost $80 billion in September, the largest drop in the eleven years of recorded data.... Read More
CPI came in below expectations for just the fourth time since the beginning of 2021. Projecting where inflation will be in several months is an impossible task, but running through several scenarios offers some perspective.... Read More