Year-over-year inflation came in right at expectations. The CPI report has now taken a bit of a back seat to the monthly payrolls release, so today's inflation data did little to change traders' minds on the odds of future rate cuts.... Read More
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 22k jobs in August, below economists' median estimate of 75k. While this is low, the question remains how many jobs must be created each month to support population changes.... Read More
Both bond yields and gold prices have moved markedly higher this year on concerns over fiscal outlooks and inflation.... Read More
While spot crypto ETFs have yet to be tested by a truly brutal bear market, their growth since inception has been remarkable.... Read More
This morning's CPI release came in right at expectations. Traders pushed the odds of a rate cut marginally higher.... Read More
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 73k jobs in July, missing the economists' median estimate. The July data suggest a slower pace for the labor market, with revisions taking a large chunk out of May & June growth. ... Read More
U.S. stocks have produced a higher return than the fixed income market at the cost of higher volatility.... Read More
While inflation data might be benign enough to allow the Fed to cut rates at some point this year, the labor market is not nearly weak enough to demand such a move. We believe the trade war will continue to cast enough uncertainty to keep the Fed in wait-and-see mode.... Read More
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 147k jobs in June, well above economists' median estimate. The data continues to allow the Fed to kick the can down the road on potential rate cuts.... Read More
The bond market has given the stock market a run for its money so far this year. U.S. stocks kept pace with foreign stocks in Q2. The dollar's slide over the past six months is the worst since 2009.... Read More
Differentiating 'allocator' ETF flows from 'trader' ETF flows... Read More
Month-over-month headline inflation came in lower than expected for the fourth month in a row. Surprisingly, some categories of goods actually declined in price in May. This runs counter to the belief that tariffs would start to push inflation higher.... Read More
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 139k jobs in May, beating economists' estimates. As long as economic data stays in this middling ground, it affords the Fed the option of kicking the can further down the road.... Read More
Gold has trended higher this year on inflation concerns. The dollar has depreciated and U.S. stocks have lagged as investors remain concerned about the consequences of the trade war.... Read More
Inflation data has improved in the last few months, but a strong labor market and uncertainty surrounding the trade war have kept traders from pricing in any rate cuts until September.... Read More
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 177k jobs in April, above the most optimistic estimate. At the moment, this news is an optimistic sign given the tariff shock to global trade. ... Read More
Gold and TIPS returns have trended higher this year on inflation concerns. The dollar has depreciated and U.S. stocks have lagged as investors remain concerned about the consequences of the trade war.... Read More
A look at the size of various markets compared to the U.S. economy... Read More
Retail money market funds saw outflows while U.S. citizens paid taxes, but inflows returned in the most recent week.... Read More
Month-over-month inflation declined for the first time since May 2020. Supercore inflation's year-over-year growth rate fell to its lowest since March 2021. While this is welcome news for those concerned about inflation, the data does not yet reflect any of April's tariff effects.... Read More