A look at the size of various markets compared to the U.S. economy... Read More
Year-over-year CPI declined a full percent in March, as anticipated. The May and June CPI releases are the last window of hope for inflation to fall by such a large degree. The question is not whether year-over-year headline inflation will be lower in a few months, but how far it will fall before year-ago numbers start to make further declines more difficult. Running through several scenarios offers some perspective on inflation's future growth rate.... Read More
While economists' estimates for March payrolls data was largely right on the screws, the actual release technically beat for a record twelfth straight month.... Read More
Big tech stocks are off to one of their hottest starts to a year on record. In fact, they account for almost all of the S&P 500's returns in 2023.... Read More
Money market funds saw $66 billion in inflows in the week ending March 22. While this is a slowdown from the larger inflows seen in each of the prior two weeks, it is a sign that banks continue to bleed deposits.... Read More
China's holdings of U.S. Treasuries has fallen almost every month since February 2021.... Read More
February's CPI data came in pretty much as expected. Next month will prove critical for lower year-over-year inflation. A high month-over-month number from March 2022 will roll off the yearly calculation, allowing for a more drastic drop in year-over-year inflation. Projecting where inflation will be in several months is an impossible task, but running through several scenarios offers some perspective.... Read More
Easy come, easy go. While bonds got off to a fast start in January, February's returns were almost the mirror opposite from a total return standpoint. Over a longer timeframe, this remains one of the worst drawdowns the bond market has experienced.... Read More
Differentiating 'allocator' ETF flows from 'trader' ETF flows... Read More
Holdings of U.S. Treasuries declined slightly in China and Japan in December, mimicking the small drop in Treasury total returns.... Read More
Month-over-month CPI was deflationary for the first time since May 2020. The year-over-year numbers are heading in the right direction and will likely continue to do so for the next several months. Come July, this dynamic could possibly change.... Read More
January's labor market data underwent many revisions. That being said, the data continues to surprise economists to the upside. In a welcome sign to Fed officials, wage growth continued lower.... Read More
After last year's miserable returns, both stocks and bonds got off to a fast start in 2023.... Read More
Despite a massive discrepancy in returns since QE began in 2009, bond funds have seen much larger inflows than stock funds.... Read More
A look at the size of various markets compared to the U.S. economy... Read More
Japan and China's holdings of Treasuries dropped materially over the past several months. A large part of this is simply a function of Treasuries' terrible returns. In the case of Japan, it may also be a sign of stress for the BoJ.... Read More
Month-over-month CPI was deflationary for the first time since May 2020. The year-over-year numbers are heading in the right direction and will likely continue to do so for the next several months. Come July, this dynamic could possibly change.... Read More
Payrolls beat expectations for a record ninth month in a row. On a three-month annualized basis, wage growth outpaced core inflation for the first time in over a year.... Read More
2022 was a year most investors would rather forget, with both stocks and bonds falling in tandem and very few major assets providing positive returns.... Read More
Differentiating 'allocator' ETF flows from 'trader' ETF flows... Read More