Inflation came in slightly lower than expected in October. In order for the year-over-year decline to continue, month-over-month CPI growth will have to average less than 0.15% the next couple months.... Read More
This morning's payrolls release missed estimates slightly, largely due to striking autoworkers.... Read More
Rather than reverting to the mean as many expected, bond returns are in the midst of an encore performance of last year's terrible returns.... Read More
Differentiating 'allocator' ETF flows from 'trader' ETF flows... Read More
A look at the size of various markets compared to the U.S. economy... Read More
Year-over-year CPI held steady in September, as the base effect from year-ago numbers is no longer helping drive inflation lower. Now the difficult part of the battle against inflation begins.... Read More
This morning's big payrolls number pushed up the odds of another Fed hike slightly, but traders remain non-committal.... Read More
As rates head higher, money continues to flow into money market funds. Banks are left with the option of raising deposit rates, which squeezes margins, or watching customers walk out the door.... Read More
After last year's horrible returns, the market is not showing signs of a mean reversion.... Read More
Year-over-year CPI rose in August, as anticipated, as the base effect from year-ago numbers is no longer helping drive inflation lower. Now the difficult part of the battle against inflation begins.... Read More
The markets are taking note that the revisions to past months' payrolls data have become increasingly negative.... Read More
Tech stocks finally took a bit of a breather in August, with the Nasdaq 100 down 1.50% on the month. However, this hardly puts a dent in the index's remarkable returns this year.... Read More
Flows into money market funds resumed in August, which points to squeezed profitability for banks.... Read More
Year-over-year CPI rose in July, as anticipated, as the base effect from year-ago numbers is no longer helping drive inflation lower. Now the difficult part of the battle against inflation begins.... Read More
This morning's payrolls report missed expectations. Wages may have stabilized, but they continue to fall short of inflation. Traders don't see today's data as changing the Fed's math.... Read More
By just about any measurement, tech stocks are experiencing one of their best total return periods on record.... Read More
ETFs have become a dominant force in U.S. trading since their inception in 1993.... Read More
A look at the size of various markets compared to the U.S. economy... Read More
Year-over-year CPI declined by more than expected in June. This CPI release was the last window of opportunity for inflation to fall by a large degree. Now that we are through June CPI, year-ago numbers start to make further declines more difficult. Running through several scenarios offers some perspective on inflation?s future growth rate. ... Read More
Payrolls failed to beat estimates for the first time since March 2022. Traders still expect a hike at the July FOMC meeting followed by a September pause.... Read More