Over 300k jobs were added in March, beating even the most optimistic economist's estimate. The odds of a rate cut at the June FOMC meeting are now a coin toss.... Read More
U.S. stocks have handily outperformed stocks from the rest of the world since the beginning of 2023, largely on the back of the Magnificent Seven.... Read More
Money continues to flow into retail money market funds. Banks are left with the option of raising deposit rates, which squeezes margins, or watching customers walk out the door.... Read More
Year-over-year inflation came in slightly above expectations in February. Supercore inflation, a measure closely watched by the Fed, rose for a fourth straight month. Time is slowly running out for data that supports a Fed rate cut this year, but fed funds traders continue to price in a June or July cut.... Read More
This morning's payrolls report was a bit of a mixed bag, offering something for both the doves and the hawks.... Read More
U.S. stocks have handily outperformed stocks from the rest of the world since the beginning of 2023, largely on the back of the Magnificent Seven.... Read More
While the majority of money market fund assets remain in government funds, the retail crowd has started reaching for yield once again in prime funds.... Read More
Inflation came in slightly above expectations in January. Supercore inflation, a measure closely watched by the Fed, rose for a third straight month. A May rate cut is now in doubt.... Read More
Payrolls beat even the highest estimate in Bloomberg's survey of economists. Revisions to past months were also the highest in a couple years. As a result, traders now see a March rate cut as unlikely.... Read More
Money continues to flow into money market funds. Banks are left with the option of raising deposit rates, which squeezes margins, or watching customers walk out the door.... Read More
The outperformance of tech stocks, specifically the Magnificent 7 stocks, in 2023 created a wide dispersion in the composition of the equity market rally.... Read More
A look at the size of various markets compared to the U.S. economy... Read More
Inflation came in slightly above expectations in December. With the easy part of the fight against inflation now over, shelter prices will have to continue lower if the Fed hopes to hit its 2% target.... Read More
This morning's payroll number was above expectations. Wall Street expected 175k jobs to be added in December, with the actual release coming in at 216k. ... Read More
As the Federal Reserve's pivot on rates becomes the base case for 2024, bonds began to rally, posting the largest 2-month gain since October 1982.... Read More
While global bond markets have seen a monstrous rally over the past two months, combined net flows indicate one of the first monthly bond outflows since January of 2022. ... Read More
Inflation came in right at expectations in November. With the easy part of the fight against inflation now over, shelter prices will have to continue lower if the Fed hopes to hit its 2% target.... Read More
November's jobs data came in mostly as expected. The monthly wage growth figure rose by 0.4%, which the Fed is undoubtedly monitoring.... Read More
The bond market had one of its best months on record in November.... Read More
Some view the massive influx of cash into money market funds as dry powder waiting to be deployed in the stock market. It is worth noting the outflows from bank deposit accounts have outpaced money market inflows since the Fed started hiking in March 2022.... Read More