A look at the size of various markets compared to the U.S. economy... Read More
Inflation came in slightly above expectations in December. With the easy part of the fight against inflation now over, shelter prices will have to continue lower if the Fed hopes to hit its 2% target.... Read More
This morning's payroll number was above expectations. Wall Street expected 175k jobs to be added in December, with the actual release coming in at 216k. ... Read More
As the Federal Reserve's pivot on rates becomes the base case for 2024, bonds began to rally, posting the largest 2-month gain since October 1982.... Read More
While global bond markets have seen a monstrous rally over the past two months, combined net flows indicate one of the first monthly bond outflows since January of 2022. ... Read More
Inflation came in right at expectations in November. With the easy part of the fight against inflation now over, shelter prices will have to continue lower if the Fed hopes to hit its 2% target.... Read More
November's jobs data came in mostly as expected. The monthly wage growth figure rose by 0.4%, which the Fed is undoubtedly monitoring.... Read More
The bond market had one of its best months on record in November.... Read More
Some view the massive influx of cash into money market funds as dry powder waiting to be deployed in the stock market. It is worth noting the outflows from bank deposit accounts have outpaced money market inflows since the Fed started hiking in March 2022.... Read More
Inflation came in slightly lower than expected in October. In order for the year-over-year decline to continue, month-over-month CPI growth will have to average less than 0.15% the next couple months.... Read More
This morning's payrolls release missed estimates slightly, largely due to striking autoworkers.... Read More
Rather than reverting to the mean as many expected, bond returns are in the midst of an encore performance of last year's terrible returns.... Read More
Differentiating 'allocator' ETF flows from 'trader' ETF flows... Read More
A look at the size of various markets compared to the U.S. economy... Read More
Year-over-year CPI held steady in September, as the base effect from year-ago numbers is no longer helping drive inflation lower. Now the difficult part of the battle against inflation begins.... Read More
This morning's big payrolls number pushed up the odds of another Fed hike slightly, but traders remain non-committal.... Read More
As rates head higher, money continues to flow into money market funds. Banks are left with the option of raising deposit rates, which squeezes margins, or watching customers walk out the door.... Read More
After last year's horrible returns, the market is not showing signs of a mean reversion.... Read More
Year-over-year CPI rose in August, as anticipated, as the base effect from year-ago numbers is no longer helping drive inflation lower. Now the difficult part of the battle against inflation begins.... Read More
The markets are taking note that the revisions to past months' payrolls data have become increasingly negative.... Read More