The jobs report raises fears of a serious economic slowdown, if not a recession. These fears are overblown. That said, we expect the Fed to respond with rate cuts.... Read More
Small-cap stocks have enjoyed their day in the sun as expectations for a Fed rate-cutting campaign grow.... Read More
Small cap ETFs brought in over $12 billion in July on hopes of imminent rate cuts.... Read More
A look at the size of various markets compared to the U.S. economy... Read More
Headline CPI posted its first deflationary month in four years. Supercore inflation, a measure closely watched by the Fed, fell for the second month in a row. The markets have further cemented their expectation for a September rate cut.... Read More
This morning's payrolls release beat expectations by a slim margin. Traders have not changed their expectations for future rate cuts based on this data.... Read More
Stocks outperformed bonds by a wide margin in the first half of 2024.... Read More
Differentiating 'allocator' ETF flows from 'trader' ETF flows... Read More
Year-over-year inflation came in below expectations in May. Supercore inflation, a measure closely watched by the Fed, fell for the first time in seven months. The markets have now put the September meeting back in play, pricing in almost 70% odds of a cut at that FOMC meeting.... Read More
This morning's payroll number beat estimates of around 185k. This marks 24 of the last 29 months that the initial payroll release has beaten Wall Street estimates.... Read More
U.S. stocks have handily outperformed stocks from the rest of the world since the beginning of 2023, largely on the back of the Magnificent Seven.... Read More
Retail money market funds saw outflows while U.S. citizens paid taxes, but inflows returned in May.... Read More
Year-over-year inflation came in right at expectations in April. Supercore inflation, a measure closely watched by the Fed, rose for a sixth straight month. The data is unlikely to move the needle much one way or another in the Fed's mind, so any Fedspeak will likely kick the can down the road until the next CPI release.... Read More
Payrolls missed estimates for the first time since October 2023. Fed funds traders are now pricing in two rate cuts by year-end.... Read More
Cocoa prices saw some of their wildest swings on record, only to finish the month almost unchanged. Bonds' slide in April have them once again tracking some of their worst YTD total returns on record.... Read More
A look at the size of various markets compared to the U.S. economy... Read More
Year-over-year inflation came in slightly above expectations again in March. Supercore inflation, a measure closely watched by the Fed, rose for a fifth straight month. Time is slowly running out for data that supports a Fed rate cut this year. Traders now put the odds of a June or July cut at less than 50%.... Read More
Over 300k jobs were added in March, beating even the most optimistic economist's estimate. The odds of a rate cut at the June FOMC meeting are now a coin toss.... Read More
U.S. stocks have handily outperformed stocks from the rest of the world since the beginning of 2023, largely on the back of the Magnificent Seven.... Read More
Money continues to flow into retail money market funds. Banks are left with the option of raising deposit rates, which squeezes margins, or watching customers walk out the door.... Read More