Risk-off flows into low volatility sectors are reaching an extreme according to sentiment (T.V. News) and investor flows (ETFs).... Read More
The auto sector is still struggling despite some relief on the trade front. Search interest points to weakening demand. Persistent risk-off flows and contracting financial leverage remain major risks. ... Read More
Tremendous hedging activity in the high yield ETF and options market is based on the assumption these instruments will provide an effective hedge over selling high yield bonds outright. If, however, the ETF, options, and credit default swaps indices start diverging from the cash bond market, trouble will follow.... Read More
Tighter financial conditions are a potential threat to growth in developed economies. The path of the U.S. dollar will be a pivotal influence as risk-off flows evolve. ... Read More
CoT Detail: 2-Year Treasury Large Specs and Leveraged Traders Are At A Net Short Extreme.... Read More
Worries about global oil supplies helped sustain oil prices as global demand softened. The supply premium is nearly gone after crude oil's collapse but the ride may not be over. ... Read More
Fear of corporate stress and downgrades are swiftly rising, leading to a breakout in investment grade and high yield OAS. But, bankruptcy fears are low, for now.... Read More
Investors are pouring back into the health care sector, but this time they prefer large caps. ... Read More
Companies are reporting rising wages are on the horizon, amplifying concerns to the greatest post-crisis. But, wage gains remain extremely different between tech-heavy industries and metros relative to the rest of the economy.... Read More
Although the media is obsessed with tariffs, companies are talking less about them and saying they are not a big problem.... Read More
Like most companies, P&G will make different comments about tariffs depending on the audience. When talking to the media, tariffs will "destroy consumers' confidence in American brands." When speaking to investors, they say they "haven't seen any appreciable impacts of the tariff situation on consumer attitudes towards brands."... Read More
Our top posts of from the week of November 5, 2018.... Read More
CoT Detail: 2-Year Treasury Large Specs and Leveraged Traders Are At A Net Short Extreme. ... Read More
PMIs are slowing as foretold by waning Google search trends for consumer spending. A continued slowdown in economic growth is expected through year-end before an eventual rebound.... Read More
Yesterday's meeting came and went as expected. The market now turns its eyes to the December meeting, where a hike is expected. The fact that the effective rate is trading right on top of IOER is one issue that may be addressed at that meeting.... Read More
Falling oil prices tend to be bearish for emerging market equity returns, but the impacts vary across economies. Lower oil prices favor Asia Pacific outperformance over Latin America. ... Read More
Global economic convergence may be on its way, but this time around economies are slowing. Investors are beginning to make a return to long-end U.S. Treasuries and low volatility equities in preparation.... Read More
Improvements in key industrial search trends are encouraging signs for Latin American growth. ... Read More