Hurricane Michael made landfall on the Florida panhandle as a major hurricane Wednesday. Florida landfalls, consistent with major hurricanes broadly, have tended to boost oil prices over the following week.... Read More
U.S. inflation expectations and Treasury implied volatility are once again seeing positive correlation. Past instances when inflation impacts volatility have favored modestly wider U.S. 10-year TIPS breakevens and steeper U.S. 2-year 10-year spread, but these moves are limited to the first month.... Read More
Global equities, industrial metals, and the U.S. dollar are increasingly tied to each other. Their collective fate will depend on China's ability to boost growth. ... Read More
U.S. Treasury volatility is beginning to rebound, but will fall flat unless inflation expectations break above the best levels of 2017. We identify those developed and emerging market sovereigns most sensitive to rising U.S. 10-year yields.... Read More
Chinese markets reopened with stocks on their heels and the yuan back at its weakest levels since mid-August. Markets will be watching closely for any signs that the PBOC is taking stronger measures to support the currency. ... Read More
CoT Detail: 10-Year Treasury Large Specs At A Net Short Extreme Position Once Again.... Read More
Small cap equities have lagged their larger peers by the most in 8 years, but this is not waving any red flags for U.S. equities in general. ... Read More
Only 58% of S&P 500 companies have positive net worth based on tangible assets.... Read More
Inflows into health care ETFs have rebounded over the past several weeks.... Read More
An update on high yield ETF volume and flows... Read More
We believe the stock/bond relationship is transitioning from a deflation mindset back to an inflation mindset. Such transitions are long and messy. These transitions also make the most important decision in investing, the asset allocation decision, the hardest. ... Read More
Search trends, global economic growth and monetary policy are lining up in favor of higher oil prices. ... Read More
Search trends show anxiety over trade, spending and national security is fading fast while monetary policy uncertainty is rising. The shifts favor widening in key cross spreads and U.S. dollar strength. ... Read More
Core inflation is rolling over while inflation expectations refuse to break out to new heights. The Federal Reserve's hopes for further tightening through 2019 and possibly 2020 will be put to the test assuming core inflation and wage growth remain stuck near targets.... Read More
A combination of performance-fueled demand and tighter supplies paint a favorable picture for leveraged loans. Financial conditions remain benign. ... Read More
The months of October and November have proven to be a poor period to own many popular commodities on a total return basis.... Read More
Our top posts from the week of September 24, 2018.... Read More
10-year specs are at an extreme net-short position once again. ... Read More
