Global equities and industrial metals are riveted to China as it decides how to defend the weak end of the yuan's trading band. ... Read More
The stock/bond relationship is behaving in a very different manner this year than it has in past years. The current decline in stocks has not changed the Fed's inclination to hike rates and 10-year yields seem complacent as well. TV news channels are not as interested in the stock market anymore. This complacency suggests it will take more losses to stop the stock market decline.... Read More
The herd mentality of passive flows diving into major ETF asset classes is breaking up as the stocks and bonds become disconnected.... Read More
House control is still expected to go to the Democrats, but their lead is diminishing. The Senate is still a lock for the Republicans.... Read More
The disconnect between high equity and low U.S. Treasury volatility can be explained by swiftly rising spending, trade, and monetary policy into the fall of 2018.... Read More
Waning global economic growth is rearing its head in search trends for key industrial categories in the U.S. Risk-off flows are fueling materials sector underperformance. ... Read More
CoT Detail: 10-Year Treasury Large Specs Near Their Net Short Extreme Position Once Again.... Read More
Investors' selling of safe assets with duration between six and ten years has finally reached an extreme, potentially leading to lower U.S. 10-year yields and a recovery by rate-sensitive risk assets.... Read More
Mounting risk-off flows are adding to an already crowded mix of bearish influences for U.S. high yield. ... Read More
BlackRock holds over one-third of all U.S. ETF assets thanks to their wildly popular iShares product line. Their stock price has been collapsing of late. We believe this a signal that all is not well in the markets and money management business.... Read More
U.S. inflation expectations are quickly falling away from the best levels seen in early 2017. Risk-off flows coupled with softening economic and inflation momentum have become headwinds.... Read More
The latest splash in cryptocurrencies is offering stability over speculative value. But is a digital dollar too close to the real thing? ... Read More
The biggest trade/issue in the market is the asset allocation decision in light of the regime change between stocks and bonds. Here we offer more detail about the 400,000 wealth managers representing 36 million accounts who are struggling with this changing landscape.... Read More
ETF investors boosted flows to China in mid-August 2018, only to suffer another round of drawdowns approaching -30% (Shanghai Composite). But, a rebound in Asia Pacific economic data changes and commodities may be on the horizon.... Read More
Painful oversupply discounts have eased. Relief for shale producers will come at the expense of disappointment for refiners. Discussions of energy margins, free cash flow, and capex will be especially important this quarter. ... Read More
Price and volatility in the high yield market are not showing any signs of stress. However, high yield ETFs are seeing a record amount of churning at the same time dealers continue to leave the cash market. Because high yield bonds are so idiosyncratic, this could lead to problems during times of turmoil in the markets.... Read More
Rising concerns about commercial bankruptcy are bearish for U.S. high yield bonds. Similar shifts in search interest late last year preceded a wave of outflows from corporate debt funds. Tailwinds from higher rates may make financials a haven as investors flee other areas. ... Read More
Our top posts from the week of October 15, 2018.... Read More
CoT Detail: 10-Year Treasury Large Specs Near Their Net Short Extreme Position Once Again.... Read More