The market currently expects seven hikes by the end of 2022, with 100 basis points worth of hikes expected in the next three meetings.... Read More
The market currently expects hikes at each of the next four meetings. The idea of a 50 basis point hike at the March meeting gained a bit of steam after Friday's payrolls report.... Read More
An update of the world of negative-yielding debt... Read More
An update of the world of negative-yielding debt... Read More
An update of the world of negative-yielding debt... Read More
Many believe the bond market has been driven by the Fed's $120B/month of QE buying. The argument followed that whenever the Fed began to remove this support, the bond market would be in trouble. Since Powell's taper announcement a month ago, isn't this exactly what is happening?... Read More
An update of the world of negative-yielding debt... Read More
An update of the world of negative-yielding debt... Read More
An update of the world of negative-yielding debt... Read More
An update of the world of negative-yielding debt... Read More
An update of the world of negative-yielding debt... Read More
An update of the world of negative-yielding debt... Read More
An update of the world of negative-yielding debt... Read More
10-year yields snapped their streak of 7 consecutive weeks of negative total returns (higher yields).... Read More
An update of the world of negative-yielding debt... Read More
Although the reduction in dealers' net Treasury position may indicate the market is oversold and poised for a rally, large speculators' net positions are rather neutral. Any rally in bonds should be viewed as a respite rally rather than an end to the rise in rates.... Read More
The narrative that the big turn higher in yields has created a large short position is not supported by the latest Commitment of Traders data.... Read More
We are not at the point that markets are rejecting central bank suppression of rates out of a fear of inflation, but we continue to inch in this direction.... Read More
An update of the world of negative-yielding debt... Read More
The CBO recently offered projections for the government's net interest expenses under both low-rate and higher-rate scenarios.... Read More