As reserves continue to be drained from the system, Fed officials are undoubtedly watching SOFR for signs of strain.... Read More
Over half of all sovereign debt yields at least 4%, making it a competitive alternative to stocks.... Read More
It is becoming increasingly easy to find a sovereign yield of at least 4% across the world.... Read More
Developed-market central banks were not going to wait for the Federal Reserve before they started cutting interest rates themselves.... Read More
How do yields react to rate cuts? It depends on the state of the economy and inflation.... Read More
Japan's 1-year note yield briefly turned positive for the first time in roughly seven years. This is significant in that Japan's 1-year note was the last holdout of negative-yielding bonds in Bloomberg's Global Aggregate Index.... Read More
Fed officials have pushed back on the markets' hopes for a pivot. Fed funds traders appear to be getting the message.... Read More
History shows the two-year yield peaks above the terminal fed funds rate. Currently the terminal rate is expected to reach 4%.... Read More
With rates surging higher this past month, an update of the world of negative-yielding debt is in order.... Read More
The speed at which the Fed is able to destroy wealth and demand via rate hikes and QT will play a large part in determining how fast inflation comes down.... Read More
Friday's CPI release prompted traders to begin pricing in a 75 basis point hike at either the July or September meeting.... Read More
The speed at which the Fed is able to destroy wealth and demand via rate hikes and QT will play a large part in determining how fast inflation comes down. How far would stocks have to drop for the Fed to blink?... Read More
It is too early to determine if Monday's 10-year peak of 3.20% marks the high of the cycle.... Read More
The market currently expects seven hikes by the end of 2022, with 100 basis points worth of hikes expected in the next three meetings.... Read More
An update of the world of negative-yielding debt... Read More
The market continues to get more aggressive in pricing in rate hikes. The fed funds futures market currently expects three straight meetings of 50 bps hikes.... Read More
The market currently expects seven hikes by the end of 2022, with 100 basis points worth of hikes expected in the next three meetings.... Read More
An update of the world of negative-yielding debt... Read More
The market currently expects seven hikes by the end of 2022, with 100 basis points worth of hikes expected in the next three meetings.... Read More