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Average wage growth near 3.0% year-over-year is masking a significant divergence between manufacturing and services labor. Their gap in growth currently nearing 2.0% has historically explained waves of physical and mental stress felt by consumers.
Comment Jim Bianco will be presenting the following material later today at the Grant’s Interest Rate Observer Conference in New York. View PDF
Financial Sense Newshour welcomes Jim Bianco at Bianco Research to discuss the recent breakout in 10-year yields to a seven-year high, and what this means for stocks, bonds, and the overall market. Bianco says traditional money managers and...
We believe the stock/bond relationship is transitioning from a deflation mindset back to a 1970s to 1990s inflation mindset. Such transitions are long and messy. These transitions also make the most important decision in investing, the asset...
U.S. 10-year notes have struggled to continue bearish breakouts from ultra-tight trading ranges. A drive to higher yields requires inflation expectations leaving behind their well-anchored condition.
Consumer trends and ETFs versus futures positioning are favoring a cheaper U.S. 10-year brought on by steepening at the front-end of the Treasury curve.
Creating a diversified portfolio is harder than ever in a period of positive correlations among nearly all major asset class returns. A brief focus on rising inflation has faded with attention now turning to the convergence in economic growth between...
Events in Washington yesterday will be a factor in the midterm elections. Given our polarized nature, the Kavanaugh hearing will only influence a small percentage of voters. These voters will determine the outcome of the midterm elections.
Inflation expectations are knocking on the ceiling, threatening to finally break out above the best levels of 2017. But, long-end yields have tended to drop in the days following past hikes.
We have a very hard time believing core inflation will break high enough from 2.0% to warrant the Federal Reserve taking the target rate above the estimated long-term neutral rate at approximately 3.0%. Markets beginning to believe the target rate...
Treasury yields challenging range highs have credit market investors shifting their exposure to financial sector credits. Recent tightening in longer-dated bank spreads may be just the beginning in inflation expectations push rates higher.
Financial markets are braced for a hawkish statement from the Fed as it pushes financial markets to expect more rate hikes in 2019. Will higher rates be a windfall for the financial sector?