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Financial leverage continues to exceed long-term averages, meaning rising U.S. 10-year real yields above 1.0% could impair near and current so-called zombie companies. However, economic momentum overtaking inflation would likely reduce this risk....
U.S. politics is the most polarized it has been since at least the Civil War, and this simply reflects the divergence in opinions among the public. All indications are the midterm election results will make this even more extreme, not less.
The great showdown between the Fed and markets over the path of inflation intensifies. Markets will not move toward Fed expectations for five hikes in the next twelve months until inflation expectations break out to the upside.
Retailing and technology industries are rich to fair value estimates, but consumer services look apt to play catch-up and outperform in the months ahead. Search trends for 'going out' are surging heading into the fall of 2018.
Rate hikes in Turkey might be a shot in the arm for emerging markets at a potent time. Global economic growth is at a potential inflection point and the ties between risk markets and industrial metals are the tightest in years.
Major hurricanes are rarely market events. We look at the performance of 10-year yields, the S&P 500, TIPS breakeven spreads and property & casualty insurers.
We have always warned against placing too much emphasis on seasonal adages such as “Sell in May and go away.” However, the month of September tends to be a quirky month for many assets on a seasonal basis and is worth examination.
A Look at Nearly 65 Years of Mutual Funds Flows All the charts below show the following series: Red line, log-scale of the S&P 500 Blue bars, rolling 12-month sum of all flows into open-ended mutual funds Green bars – total assets The...
Emerging market economic growth has slowed to a point unfavorable for emerging market currencies and favorable for the U.S. dollar. Monetary policy uncertainty should also rise in this environment.
While everyone is obsessing about ETFs consuming the financial industry, and now at zero fees to boot, quietly a new disruptive force may be coming ... abandoning the fund structure altogether in favor of "subscribing" to stock lists, made possible...
Asset allocators are facing an ultra-low return environment aided by a lack of economic surprises and ultra-low volatility in inflation expectations. We are closely watching inflation swap cap/floor ratios to signal a volatility revival.
The consumer services industry is poised to out-perform in the months ahead. We dig into small and big-ticket vacation plans of consumers to explain wage growth and central bank tightening expectations.