Markets
Falling Oil Prices to Test the Bank of Canada
November 14, 2018
Potential weakness in the housing market and the drop in oil prices will test the Bank of Canada's hawkish intentions.
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Markets
Slowing Global Growth and Rising Policy Uncertainty
November 13, 2018
Global synchronized slowing is taking hold, but the U.S. and Latin America remain out-performers for now. Safe assets and the U.S. dollar have performed quite well during similar instances in the past.
Markets
A Different Kind of Risk-Off Has Treasuries Underperforming
November 13, 2018
The longest risk off cycle since December 2016 marches on, now at 37 trading days. Treasuries have underperformed versus typical risk off cycles.
Markets
Consumer Interest in Shopping Dropping Fast
November 13, 2018
Consumers are finding other things to do with the time they used to spend shopping. We see headwinds for retailers, especially in the home improvement space.
Long-end Yields Set to Decline, Flatten Curve
November 8, 2018
The U.S. 5-year 30-year spread is poised to flatten with investor positioning reaching steepening extremes and the Federal Reserve committed to normalizing policy.
Markets
Inflation, a Forgotten Concern
November 7, 2018
U.S. inflation expectations have become too pessimistic and a forgotten concern to degrees favoring widening in the weeks ahead.
Markets
Investors, the Fed, and Media Can’t Agree on What Matters
November 5, 2018
The financial media, consumers and the Federal Reserve do not have the same concerns or issues on their radar screens. Uncertainty is rising across financial media and investors.
Markets
Fed and Markets Disagree on Strength of Economy
October 25, 2018
The Federal Reserve has become true believers in a strong U.S. economy, but equity and bond investors are pushing back given shifting risk-off flows.
Markets
Treasuries May Get a Boost as Risk-Off Cycle Evolves
October 25, 2018
Signs point to Treasury outperformance in the next phase of the longest risk-off cycle since December 2016.
Markets
USTs Shun the Global Picture
October 22, 2018
Investors in U.S. Treasuries are shunning global economic data changes, placing most of their chips on U.S. growth. A breakout by inflation expectations is needed to extend the bearish slide on path to reach extremes according to ETF flows.
Markets
Shipping Trends Outpacing Consumer Demand and Capex
October 18, 2018
An inventory build-up is likely with search trends for shipping far exceeding those of consumer spending and capital expenditures. We expect the transportation industry to offer sub-par returns through year-end.
Markets
Monetary Policy Uncertainty Brews With Heaviest Discussion of...
October 17, 2018
All-time highs in the discussion of the 'neutral rate' are coinciding with elevated monetary policy uncertainty. Higher U.S. Treasury yields will demand realized inflation and a continuation of favorable consumer trends.