Markets
Grant’s Interest Rate Observer Conference Presentation
October 9, 2018
Comment Jim Bianco will be presenting the following material later today at the Grant’s Interest Rate Observer Conference in New York. View PDF
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Media
Jim Bianco on Fed Killing the Recovery, Kavanaugh Political Aftermath
October 7, 2018
Financial Sense Newshour welcomes Jim Bianco at Bianco Research to discuss the recent breakout in 10-year yields to a seven-year high, and what this means for stocks, bonds, and the overall market. Bianco says traditional money managers and...
Markets
Revisiting The Change In The Stock/Bond Relationship
October 5, 2018
We believe the stock/bond relationship is transitioning from a deflation mindset back to a 1970s to 1990s inflation mindset. Such transitions are long and messy. These transitions also make the most important decision in investing, the asset...
Markets
Long-end Yield Breakout Exciting? Not Yet…
October 4, 2018
U.S. 10-year notes have struggled to continue bearish breakouts from ultra-tight trading ranges. A drive to higher yields requires inflation expectations leaving behind their well-anchored condition.
Markets
Consumer Trends and Positioning Favor Cheaper U.S. 10-Year Note
October 3, 2018
Consumer trends and ETFs versus futures positioning are favoring a cheaper U.S. 10-year brought on by steepening at the front-end of the Treasury curve.
Markets
Constructing a Diversified Portfolio Harder Than Ever
October 2, 2018
Creating a diversified portfolio is harder than ever in a period of positive correlations among nearly all major asset class returns. A brief focus on rising inflation has faded with attention now turning to the convergence in economic growth between...
Politics
More On The Event That Will Turn The Midterms
September 28, 2018
Events in Washington yesterday will be a factor in the midterm elections. Given our polarized nature, the Kavanaugh hearing will only influence a small percentage of voters. These voters will determine the outcome of the midterm elections.
Markets
Inflation Expectations on the Brink, Will They Let Us Down Yet Again?
September 27, 2018
Inflation expectations are knocking on the ceiling, threatening to finally break out above the best levels of 2017. But, long-end yields have tended to drop in the days following past hikes.
Central Banks
The Cage Match Between Investors and the Federal Reserve
September 26, 2018
We have a very hard time believing core inflation will break high enough from 2.0% to warrant the Federal Reserve taking the target rate above the estimated long-term neutral rate at approximately 3.0%. Markets beginning to believe the target rate...
Markets
Higher Rates Making Waves in Financial Sector Credit
September 26, 2018
Treasury yields challenging range highs have credit market investors shifting their exposure to financial sector credits. Recent tightening in longer-dated bank spreads may be just the beginning in inflation expectations push rates higher.
Markets
Can Higher Rates Boost Financials?
September 25, 2018
Financial markets are braced for a hawkish statement from the Fed as it pushes financial markets to expect more rate hikes in 2019. Will higher rates be a windfall for the financial sector?
Markets
Leverage a Growing Concern, but Economic Momentum a Strong Buffer
September 24, 2018
Financial leverage continues to exceed long-term averages, meaning rising U.S. 10-year real yields above 1.0% could impair near and current so-called zombie companies. However, economic momentum overtaking inflation would likely reduce this risk....