Today's topics include 2023 projections, a long-term look at bond returns, the retail trader retreats, Covid-Zero & China's economy, gauging peak U.S. unemployment, European stocks outpace U.S. stocks last six months, studying market crashes, and growth vs. value
Wall Street is forecasting a recession, soaring unemployment, collapsing inflation, and the worst profit outlook in at least a generation. But the hope is this could be bullish for stocks as it leads to a Fed pivot and another liquidity-driven rally.
Today's topics include Jim discusses the 2023 outlook & the jobs market, sizing up off-balance sheet debt, interpreting the yield curve's inversion, housing's lagging contribution to inflation, how long can stimulus money hold up the economy?, checking in on the supply chain, global GDP's declining prospects, crude oil vs. energy stocks, and REIT outflows
Friday's payroll report was good; it showed an expanding economy. But in this "good news is bad news for markets" world, this good report tanked risk markets, especially NASDAQ stocks. Then Wall Street/investors spent all day convincing themselves this was really a bad report.
Today's topics include The Fed starts guiding expectations for February meeting, more on wage growth, a call for 5% long-term inflation, the end of easy money, checking in on recession indicators, a note of caution on Europe's energy crisis, the dollar's fall since late September, the effects of long covid, and verifying crypto reserves
Payrolls beat estimates for the eighth straight month. The markets took this upside beat in stride, keeping an eye on the upcoming inflation release.
Today's topics include credit market has rose colored glasses, Blackstone real estate fund restricts redemptions, not so ESG, Lagarde talking up the inflation fight, one way to see how wrong predictions will be in 2023, gold reserves, UK food costs, and shoring up capital requirements
Both U.S. and global bond total returns bounced back in a big way in November. However, one positive month is a drop in the bucket compared to the year's miserable returns.