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Q3 Earnings Update: An Ugly Look Ahead
November 21, 2022
Earnings growth expectations for the next several quarters are declining amidst slowing economic growth and tighter margins.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
November 21, 2022
Today's topics include interpreting an inverted yield curve, Goldman remains bearish through 2023, quantifying the effect of Fed's rate hikes thus far, an alternative look at tech valuations, how to measure the costs of shelter inflation, the prime age workforce, a warning on gas price caps, the bull case for copper, and comparing crypto's meltdown to past financial meltdowns
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Cartoons
November 21, 2022
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Valuations in a Bear Market Rally
November 18, 2022
The S&P 500 bounced strongly off the latest CPI data that indicated inflation may be peaking. If October 10th was the bear market low, how do valuations now compare to previous bear market bottoms?
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
November 18, 2022
Today's topics include hikes not over, Bullard on 'sufficiently restrictive', overly optimistic on taming inflation?, COVID keeping China's economy in check, the misery index, emerging market debt, banks' mounting mortgage writedowns, and crypto cover alert
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Cartoons
November 18, 2022
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TIC Update – Japans Treasury Holdings Declined by Record Amount in September
November 17, 2022
Japan's holdings of U.S. Treasury securities fell almost $80 billion in September, the largest drop in the eleven years of recorded data.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
November 17, 2022
Today's topics include earnings rally, the Nasdaq has a ways to go, inflation expectations, we may finally see supply chain normalization, spending spree continues, gas glut?, 60/40 getting another shot?, and the final days of crypto? unlikely
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Cartoons
November 17, 2022
Newsclips
The Yield Curve Goes Extreme
November 16, 2022
Extremely inverted yield curves signal the Fed is too tight. But they have only reached this point in the last few weeks. It typically takes several months of this condition for a slowdown/recession or policy pivot to materialize.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
November 16, 2022
Today's topics include housing growing increasingly out of reach for buyers, soft landing unlikely according to Esther George, UK fund managers warn government, the labor force, food price deflation?, nickel prices soar, consumers leaning on credit cards, used cars as a barometer for inflation, and Cathie Wood likes GBTC's discount