Today's topics include discussing the FOMC minutes, supply inflation vs. demand inflation, housing's decline, the cost of servicing debt, uncertainty in 2023, natural gas prices, a mortgage carry trade, and filling the Fed vice chair seat
10-year Japanese government bond yields are pushing against their 0.50% yield curve control ceiling again. Despite a 30-year high in inflation and rising wages, the Bank of Japan remains in a decades-long fight against deflation. Something has to give, the inflation data or yield curve control.
Australia ended its yield curve control in 2021. The unwind serves as a warning for Japan and anyone else that wants to consider fighting economic or market forces.
Today's topics include the pivot comes & goes, a bear market rally?, cyclical vs. acyclical inflation, qe as hotel california, inflation-adjusted wages across the globe, the cost of higher rates, and today's crypto FUD
A replay of our Febraury 23, 2023 conference call.
Between the strong payroll report on February 2, the higher-than-expected inflation report on February 14, and the recent rise in used car prices, markets have repriced their expectations for Fed hikes significantly over the last two weeks. They now expected the Fed to hike above 5.25%, maybe as high as 6% by fall.
With a focus on the Fed tightening cycle, peaking inflation, and a 2023 recession, S&P 500 earnings have declined to reflect the expected economic pain ahead. Yet, economists and analysts are unsure how earnings will fare. Looking at the fourth quarter of 2022 earnings might give us a clearer picture.
Today's topics include equity bearishness, profit margin squeeze, El-Erian questions the Fed's 2% inflation target, money supply, this week's FOMC minutes may actually prove interesting, projecting a bounceback for the 60/40 portfolio, office building defaults, how much do you need to retire?, a real-life work-from-home study, and an update on the commitments of traders data
Today's topics include Goldman raises its terminal rate outlook, covering inflation, thinking about real rates, disposable income, BofA sees 'no landing' followed by 'hard landing', another way to look at market breadth, growth vs. value, natural gas prices in Europe, your daily update on 0DTE options, and the SEC sets its sights on another crypto villain.