Charts of the Week
Weekly Research Recap
March 10, 2023
Some interesting charts from our recent posts
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Understanding 0DTE Part 3: Intraday Mechanics
March 9, 2023
Risk can not be destroyed, only transformed. Understanding the mechanics of 0DTE on an intraday basis can give insight into understanding risk in a new market envoirnment.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
March 9, 2023
Today's topics include the yield curve's lead time, the jobs market, don't give up on TINA just yet, ARK raking in fees, stock buyback pledges, more on Janice Eberly as candidate for Fed Vice Chair, corporate bond flows, and Silvergate to wind down
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Cartoons
March 9, 2023
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Understanding 0DTE Part 2: Trading 0DTE
March 8, 2023
0DTE options have become a focus for market participants trying to understand where risk lies. Looking at the derivatives market and how these options are traded is a crucial first step.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
March 8, 2023
Today's topics include updating the odds of a 50 basis point hike, 6% coming soon?, the terminal rate & price stability, yield curve inversions, Powell's speeches bring volatility, the retail crowd's infatuation with options, active management's 'good' year, macro funds, quantifying remote work, and watch all central banks
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Cartoons
March 8, 2023
Media & Communications
Latest on 2/10s Curve
March 7, 2023
Powell just finished, and here is the updated probability that the Fed will hike 50 next week. Go with the market probabilities, and you’ll be mistaken for Nostradamus. So much for the idea that nothing happens at these testimonies! The terminal rate is now out to 5.62% Remember, in the last several cycles, the 2-year… Continue reading Latest on 2/10s Curve
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Understanding 0DTE Part 1: Measuring Volatility
March 7, 2023
While intraday volatility rises, longer-term volatility remains subdued. Traditional measures of volatility are being questioned. Understanding how this happened might give a clue as to where the risk lies.
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The Problem With Surveys: Payroll Report Edition
March 7, 2023
Many government statistics are collected via surveys. As with political polls, the public is souring on answering them. The result is lower response rates and larger error rates.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
March 7, 2023
Today's topics include talkin' Fed policy & interest rates, banks finally raising deposit rates, previewing Friday's payrolls report, predicting recession, missing bankers in China, the Cleveland Fed's inflation nowcast, diverging volatility across assets, stealth stimulus, explaining seasonal adjustments, algos vs. humans, and the debt ceiling