First Republic is looking into a potential sale. This brings into question whether other regional banks are still at risk of losing deposits. These banks are critical sources of lending in the U.S., so any sustained loss of deposits would have a material effect on the economy. A hike in deposit rates and further FDIC assurances could help stem the outflows.
China's holdings of U.S. Treasuries has fallen almost every month since February 2021.
Today's topics include take profits before the Fed, taking a chunk out of the banks, market 'doublethink', crisis? what crisis?, trouble in liquidity land, capital investments, rethinking bailouts, and on Credit Suisse
In this confusing environment, we believe the Fed will take its cue from the stock market in deciding what to do next week.
Today's topics include talkin' about the banking crisis, the regulatory response to the banking crisis, the Fed is caught between a rock & a hard place, the bailout debate rages on, the pain continues for Credit Suisse, the debt ceiling, and Cramer must be using an alternate definition of 'soft landing'
First see the charts below. This wild gyrating of the probabilities this close to a meeting is without precedent. NO ONE has a road map for this, including the Fed. So, what do they do next week? Let me offer some ideas. They are based on one assumption and one historical fact. ASSUMPTION: the Fed… Continue reading Some thoughts on what the Fed WILL DO next week.
February's CPI data came in pretty much as expected. Next month will prove critical for lower year-over-year inflation. A high month-over-month number from March 2022 will roll off the yearly calculation, allowing for a more drastic drop in year-over-year inflation. Projecting where inflation will be in several months is an impossible task, but running through several scenarios offers some perspective.
Today's topics include rates gone mad, tier 1 banks rake in deposits, a system breaking down?, global central bank messaging, Federal Home Loan Bank raises capital, the Fed's accounting tricks, and a trade for persistent inflation
A summary of Silicon Valley Bank? pic.twitter.com/VZTLQm9wOq — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) March 13, 2023
Today's topics include the Treasury/Fed/FDIC attempt to stop the bleeding, sizing Up SVB's failure, is this a bailout?, the Fed's Bank Term Funding Program, the UK finds a buyer for SVB' UK unit, so where does this leave the Fed's rate hike campaign?, the two-year note's wild ride, the return of the bond vigilantes, keep an eye on the other banks, the Fed is exposed to same rising rate problem as other banks, and the allure of renting