The latest updates to the consensus economic view are more of the same. A recession is coming, unemployment will soar, and inflation will return to 2%. This outlook has been wrong for over a year. With all the forecasting errors in the same direction, what are economists missing?
Easy come, easy go. While bonds got off to a fast start in January, February's returns were almost the mirror opposite from a total return standpoint. Over a longer timeframe, this remains one of the worst drawdowns the bond market has experienced.
Today's topics include all eyes on wages, Chinese economy shows signs of life?, Fed credibility, U.S. labor market, housing, risk aversion among the risk takers, how strong can the consumer stay?, a new face at the Chicago Fed, and Binance seeing major outflows
Differentiating 'allocator' ETF flows from 'trader' ETF flows
Today's topics include Dudley on money printing, short bets adding up, easy returns are gone, commodity futures as a hedge, Russia's efforts to ditch the dollar, Eurozone still battling higher inflation, the SPAC bust, value & buybacks, falling rents, and risky loans still tied to LIBOR
As the Q4 2022 reporting season winds down, earnings have been a disappointment. The beat rate is less than expected and the reporting "bounce" is among the smallest ever seen.
Today's topics include the odds of a soft landing, updating the odds of rate hikes, El-Erian calls for Congress to join the fight against inflation, anecdotal signs of labor market improvement, a bear market rally?, some bearish twitter charts, certain supply chain costs remain elevated, and past & present bond market returns
Today's topics include food prices, why US investors should focus on more than the Fed, retirement account balances show big drop, work from home hasn't gone away, tracking outflows, looking at the labor market, understanding base effects, on distressed debt, Fed's path & munis, and dollar pain trade