Yesterday's surge of 4.96% in the S&P 500 was one of the 20 best days in the post-World War 2 period. Unfortunately, the vast majority of these days occur in a bear market and the average loss over the ensuing year is 15%.... Read More
As the stock market's decline reaches historic proportions, The New York Times blames Trump and The Wall Street Journal blames the Fed. This decline stops when everyone stops playing the blame game and starts doing their part to stop it.... Read More
Expansion is the natural state of an economy. Recessions happen because something breaks. We examine some of the main ingredients involved in past recessions.... Read More
Powell downplayed the stock market correction at yesterday's meeting.... Read More
It is unusual for the stock market to make new lows in December, especially in the second half of December. This is adding to the anxiety on Wall Street and does not bode well for next year.... Read More
Public and spending policy uncertainties are on the rise, not helped by turmoil surrounding Trump. Unlike trade, concerns of the future of public and spending policies are denting growth outlooks and instigating market volatility.... Read More
Fears of a Fed policy mistake have burst to levels witnessed during the yuan devaluation and global weakness of September 2015.... Read More
Given the carnage in markets and the repricing of economic growth, some form of dovish concession is expected from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. What would a dovish course correction mean for the U.S. dollar?... Read More
Jim appeared on CNBC with Rick Santelli discussing the move from growth funds to value funds as investors de-risk their portfolios.... Read More
FOMC rate hike timing is falling in line with global economic growth and inflation expectations.... Read More
Search interest in tech-related jobs is leading improvements in broader employment search categories. But slowing economic growth means the wage growth disparity between services and manufacturing is likely to persist in the near term. ... Read More
Leverage bank loans went from bad to worse this week. For now, we do not look at this as a leading indicator of contagion.... Read More
While the media continues to hyperventilate about the trade war and the market swings with every Trump tweet, corporations continue to paint tariffs as small and manageable.... Read More
Investor flows into interest rate sensitive assets reveal greatly diminished fears long-end U.S. Treasury yields will climb. But, past instances indicate a contrarian signal pointing to higher yields.... Read More
As financial sector equities continue to take a beating, signs of a bid for longer-dated bank paper are an interesting development. ... Read More
Liquidity risks are rising and denting the prospect for continued tightening into 2019. Any rebound in the Fed?s discussion of liquidity and/or global concerns would raise a red flag, likely making 2019 devoid of tightening expectations.... Read More