2018 proved to be a difficult year to find a decent return as cash beat every major asset class. In fact, since 1926, only a few other years offered a worse asset allocation environment.... Read More
If recent market volatility continues, we would expect soft surveys to continue to show signs of weakness. If they all continue moving lower in unison, it may give the Fed all the more reason to reconsider any further rate hikes.... Read More
Don't assume companies with higher insider ownership are a better investment than those without management's buy-in.... Read More
Over half of all investment grade debt is now BBB-rated.... Read More
Illinois lays claim to the highest state muni yield. It has also produced the best returns since the end of 2016.... Read More
Selected charts and excerpts from some of our research over the past week... Read More
For both the stock and bond markets, the first day and week of the year are often the most volatile. Even though 2018 ended with historic volatility, history suggests more to come, starting today.... Read More
Illinois and New Jersey munis have the highest yield in the country, reflecting the poor financial position of these states. But high yields have also propelled them to the top of the total return tables. This works until it doesn't.... Read More
We believe the stock market's 7% rally since Wednesday can be attributed in large part to a belief that the Fed is done hiking. If the Fed pushes back on this notion in any way, it will not sit well with the stock market.... Read More
While we like to think presidential criticism of the Fed is somehow new, it is actually rather common.... Read More
Do not fall into the trap of thinking this holiday season's market gyrations are just noise by assuming volume is low. In reality, this past week has been one of the heavier volume weeks of the year.... Read More
Jim was on CNBC yesterday talking about the Fed's use of the term automatic pilot and why the market rejected this approach.... Read More
High Yield investors continue to rely on index products like ETFs, CDX and put options to hedge positions instead of selling high yield bonds. This represents a risk as the bonds that make up these indices are too different to assume they can trade as one. When stresses rise enough, these bonds could go their separate ways, making index level strategies ineffective.... Read More
Money is leaving active managers, but not passive investments. This is hurting the stocks of asset managers.... Read More
Fed watching may have become a sport once again. If yesterday's massive rally was due to a perceived belief that the Fed has caved, the markets will be looking for affirmation from Fed officials. If traders don't hear the right words soon, we would expect the declines to continue. ... Read More