With rates on the rise, investors are rewarding stocks of companies with low leverage.... Read More
PG&E's downgrade to junk status puts the utility company at risk of joining the list of fallen angels - assuming they don't declare bankruptcy first.... Read More
Which candidates are expected to run for President in 2020? Who will control the House and Senate?... Read More
Traders continue to use the high yield index market as a hedge rather than trading the underlying bonds. This is a strategy that works while liquidity exists, but could pose serious problems in volatile markets.... Read More
Join us for our conference call on January 10, 2019 at 9 AM CT.... Read More
No one seems to know what to make of Brexit. A resolution is badly needed as the UK economy is at risk of grinding to a halt.... Read More
Price and volume between investment grade and high yield are diverging in ways not seen in years. This represents a risk for high yield moreso than investment grade.... Read More
The Fed made a mistake in being overly hawkish as the economy turned south. It took three weeks of wild market volatility before they altered their stance. In taking so long to change their tune, the Fed added to an already decelerating economy.... Read More
The CFTC recently announced it will release its COT report each Friday and Tuesday until the data is caught up from the government shutdown.... Read More
For the first time in 11 years, the markets are closer to pricing in a rate cut than a rate hike. The Fed is still talking about rate hikes and balance sheet reductions. We cannot find a historical example of the markets and the Fed being on such different pages. It sets up a dangerous situation for the Fed to navigate.... Read More
2018 proved to be a difficult year to find a decent return as cash beat every major asset class. In fact, since 1926, only a few other years offered a worse asset allocation environment.... Read More
If recent market volatility continues, we would expect soft surveys to continue to show signs of weakness. If they all continue moving lower in unison, it may give the Fed all the more reason to reconsider any further rate hikes.... Read More
Don't assume companies with higher insider ownership are a better investment than those without management's buy-in.... Read More
Over half of all investment grade debt is now BBB-rated.... Read More
Illinois lays claim to the highest state muni yield. It has also produced the best returns since the end of 2016.... Read More
Selected charts and excerpts from some of our research over the past week... Read More
For both the stock and bond markets, the first day and week of the year are often the most volatile. Even though 2018 ended with historic volatility, history suggests more to come, starting today.... Read More
Illinois and New Jersey munis have the highest yield in the country, reflecting the poor financial position of these states. But high yields have also propelled them to the top of the total return tables. This works until it doesn't.... Read More
