Both the yield curve and the relative position of U.S. interest rates to those across the world are pointing to economic stress ahead.... Read More
Highlights from the most recent CoT report... Read More
Jim was on Bloomberg TV discussing negative interest rates.... Read More
We have always warned against placing too much emphasis on seasonal adages such as, "Sell in May and go away." However, the month of September tends to be a quirky month for many assets on a seasonal basis and is worth examination.... Read More
We don't see the flood of foreign money that Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren cites.... Read More
As long as the ECB drives its rates deeper into negative territory, it forces U.S. rates lower. ... Read More
Highlights from the most recent CoT report... Read More
Detailing our current thoughts on the markets and economy... Read More
For the first time ever, the fed funds rate is the highest rate in the developed world. The Fed has some explaining to do.... Read More
Based on recent moves in S&P futures and fed funds futures, we assess how far stocks might need to fall before fed funds begin pricing in a 50 basis point cut at the September meeting.... Read More
Jim was on Bloomberg yesterday making the case for a continued rally in long bonds. ... Read More
A transcript of our August 22, 2019 conference call. ... Read More
Join us today at 9 AM CT for our conference call. ... Read More
Jay Powell's Jackson Hole speech this Friday has the potential to be a game-changer for the markets.... Read More
Our top posts from the week of August 12, 2019. ... Read More
Negative rates have hurt European banks. The fear is ECB head Draghi/Lagarde will cut rates even deeper into negative territory and put these banks into further stress.... Read More
An inverted 2y/10y curve is not necessarily the immediate death knell for stocks.... Read More
Many cities across the U.S. have yet to regain their pre-crash levels in home prices.... Read More