In the last few weeks, we have been tracking markets breaking out. So far only the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have broken above resistence. If investors are truly signaling a recovery, other markets should follow suit in the coming days.... Read More
Last week Jim was on Trading Futures with Anthony Crudele and Ira Harris, among many others, talking about markets and the Fed.... Read More
2019 has proven to be the year in which all major assets have provided positive total returns.... Read More
Yesterday Jim was on CNBC's Fast Money discussing the upcoming FOMC meeting. He made the case that high relative rates in the U.S. are acting as a drag on the economy and that the Fed should pay more attention to rates around the world.... Read More
Yesterday the S&P 500 broke out to a new high, a bullish development. However, mid-cap and small-cap stocks, U.S. interest rates, and credit have not confirmed this move. If investors are truly signaling a recovery, these other markets should follow suit in the coming days.... Read More
Jim sat down for an interview with Christoph Gisiger to talk about the markets' response to uncertainty. ... Read More
Aging populations in the developed world are growing. This is a big contributor to negative yields.... Read More
A look at foreign net sales and purchases of U.S. Treasuries, agencies, corporates and equities through August... Read More
Liquidity problems in the repo market are not improving. The Fed has medicated the problem for now, but the problem has not gone away. Hopefully the $60 billion in T-bill purchases each month will help. The potential for year-end calendar liquidity issues looms on the horizon.... Read More
Markets are rallying as the uncertainties surrounding Brexit and the trade war are removed. However, they have not broken out from their recent trading ranges. If this is truly the start of a significant move, these range breaks have to occur soon.... Read More
An inverted yield curve is a market signal that the Fed is too tight and the funds rate needs to come down. When the Fed finally gets aggressive in cutting rates, the yield curve massively steepens. Will the Fed's announcement of $60 billion per month in T-bill purchases produce a similar response from the yield curve?... Read More
Global growth is weighing on the U.S. markets more than domestic growth. Global growth needs to turn higher for the U.S. market to truly recover and long-term U.S. rates to meaningfully rise.... Read More
Chairman Powell and Governor Brainard recently talked about a policy called yield curve control. This has been tried in the past with disappointing results.... Read More
The Fed has ensured a steady supply of repo money will be available to banks until the end of October, which happens to coincide with the next FOMC meeting.... Read More
The 60/40 portfolio returned 1.93% in Q3 after producing stellar returns through the first half of the year.... Read More
In our latest Bloomberg column, we make the case that extremely low yields are the "new normal."... Read More