A look at outstanding amounts of Treasuries, corporates, agencies, munis and open market paper.... Read More
The amount of outstanding private credit in the U.S. experienced a brief decline during the financial crisis, but government debt grew throughout the entire period. Both are now at new highs.... Read More
The floodgates are open. Look for forecasts for Q2 2020 and the rest of the year to drastically change to some of the most extreme readings ever seen. At this point, these are no more than wild guesses. Take this as a signal that quantitative approaches at fair value are not possible in this environment.... Read More
It is difficult to find a superlative to describe what the Fed announced this morning. At first blush, it looks like they are nationalizing financial markets, except for equities and high yield.... Read More
The dealers' balance sheets are full and post-crisis rules are preventing them from expanding. The Fed is trying the drain dealers' balance sheets via QE, allowing more room for dealers to operate. The problem is the markets are repricing for a new post-virus world. When banks are able to make a market, there is only selling. This stops when markets fall enough that the full damage is priced in.... Read More
Central banks fired all their weapons to stop markets from declining, but U.S. stock futures are locked limit down as we write. The central bank "put" no longer works. If risk markets make new lows, regulators and government officials may have no choice but to close the financial markets to prevent chaos and lasting damage.... Read More
The latest infection and death counts paint a depressing picture. They help explain the chaos in financial markets.... Read More
It looks like the dealers want and need the Fed's liquidity, but too many regulators and rules are keeping them illiquid.... Read More
Friday, the 13th, between 7:45AM ET and 9:00AM ET the Fed will offer the massive sum of $1.175 trillion in liquidity (repo) in an attempt to help dysfunctional financial markets. If it works, and liquidity returns, financial markets should resemble normalcy. If it does not, and continued liquidation and illiquidity remain, the next option might be a temporary closure of financial markets.... Read More
To-date, 354 companies in the S&P 500 have mentioned the words 'coronavirus' or 'COVID-19' in their quarterly earnings reports, transcripts, presentations, or press releases.... Read More
Cable news channels' coverage of the coronavirus has picked up considerably as the virus spreads in the U.S.... Read More
We offer some tables and graphs to put the markets in perspective.... Read More
The U.S. stock market continues to exhibit record volatility. What happens next? The answer depends on how many more near-record days are to come.... Read More
The number of cases of coronavirus surpassed 1,000 in the U.S.... Read More
Yesterday was an epic day in the financial markets by many measures. Does this mark a bottom?... Read More
The latest infection charts, Trump's re-election chances, and the Fed is poised to cut to zero next week.... Read More
