Data from the options market further supports the case that the retail crowd should be taken very seriously.... Read More
We have been chronicling the retail mania to buy stocks. This really began in March as the public looked at the historic collapse as a tremendous opportunity.... Read More
Stock and corporate bond markets have stalled in the last month. Only the six FAANMG stocks are moving forward. Is the bear market rally over?... Read More
The areas of the country with the least evidence of an infection peak seem to be moving fastest to restart. And the evidence is the re-start, to-date, has been very slow.... Read More
We believe there is little doubt the U.S. stock market is seeing a full-blown retail mania. It is possibly equal to, if not larger than, the retail mania during the peak of the tech bubble of 2000.... Read More
Speculative frenzies are often the mark of a market peak. Small retail accounts have bought stocks with abandon throughout the decline and subsequent bounce.... Read More
Many believe the bear market that saw the S&P 500 plunge 34% over the course of five weeks starting in late February is over and that major stock indexes will not revisit their recent lows. Don?t count on it.... Read More
How is the Treasury going to issue $3 trillion of debt over the next quarter without interest rates spiking higher? Could the answer be defacto yield curve control by the Federal Reserve?... Read More
A 90% recovery is a bad recession. In 2007-2009, U.S. GDP only fell about 4% from its high. Early evidence from China suggests their economy is still at roughly 90% of its pre-virus levels.... Read More
At some point the economy will have to restart and people will return to work, but many questions remain. What will a restart look like? What kind of economic life will we return to? The economy needs to regain nearly 100% of its pre-virus activity to avoid a long stagnation. Georgia's reopening this week should provide a window into our economic future.... Read More
A look at foreign net sales and purchases of U.S. Treasuries, agencies, corporates and equities through February... Read More
Jim was recently a panelist for Hedgeye's Investing Summit, talking about the markets and the economy.... Read More
The Fed is buying bonds at rates unimaginable just a few weeks ago, yet yields are not plummeting. Why not?... Read More
Earnings season starts this week. No one really knows what to expect, but forecasts are coming down hard and probably have further to go.... Read More