How is the Treasury going to issue $3 trillion of debt over the next quarter without interest rates spiking higher? Could the answer be defacto yield curve control by the Federal Reserve?... Read More
A 90% recovery is a bad recession. In 2007-2009, U.S. GDP only fell about 4% from its high. Early evidence from China suggests their economy is still at roughly 90% of its pre-virus levels.... Read More
At some point the economy will have to restart and people will return to work, but many questions remain. What will a restart look like? What kind of economic life will we return to? The economy needs to regain nearly 100% of its pre-virus activity to avoid a long stagnation. Georgia's reopening this week should provide a window into our economic future.... Read More
A look at foreign net sales and purchases of U.S. Treasuries, agencies, corporates and equities through February... Read More
Jim was recently a panelist for Hedgeye's Investing Summit, talking about the markets and the economy.... Read More
The Fed is buying bonds at rates unimaginable just a few weeks ago, yet yields are not plummeting. Why not?... Read More
Earnings season starts this week. No one really knows what to expect, but forecasts are coming down hard and probably have further to go.... Read More
The Fed greatly expanded its buying program, adding facilities to buy munis and CARES loans as well as broadening eligible bond purchases to fallen angels and a wider swath of investment grade bonds.... Read More
A look at the assets on the Fed's balance sheet... Read More
In the wake of the government's $2 trillion stimulus bill, the Treasury has ramped up T-bill issuance.... Read More
We are about to undergo the worst recession in the modern era.... Read More
Something extraordinary is happening in the Treasury market and few really seem to understand it. The Fed bought $1 trillion of bonds in the last three weeks and bond yields have barely budged. Why?... Read More
China needs dollars. They have $1 trillion of Treasuries to sell to generate dollars. The Fed does not want this to happen. So the Fed created a new swap line Treasuries as collateral for dollars. ... Read More