Speculation with U.S. equity listed options is rampant. Options volume, combined with retail trading volume, might make up as much as 40% of NYSE volume.... Read More
Q2 was another rough one for banks amidst the lowest net interest margins on record and surging loan loss provisions.... Read More
The recovery continues but is slowing. Many economic measures remain well below pre-pandemic levels. We see little evidence anyone is returning to the office.... Read More
Is our hope for a vaccine to be a "medical bailout" of the economy asking too much?... Read More
10-year yields are pushing four-month lows as the Fed has stepped up its POMO purchases to $20 billion/day. These purchases make the economic meaning of this move suspect.... Read More
We believe two forces are driving the dollar lower. One is an exhale from the world about owning non-dollar assets again. The second is rampant speculation by the hot money crowd.... Read More
Over the last month, high-frequency data shows signs that the economy's recovery is flattening out. This lines up with the increase in virus cases.... Read More
The small decline in the Fed's balance sheet has come in the form of decreased repo market support and decreased dollar swaps with foreign central banks. Their Treasury purchases continue, albeit at a slower pace.... Read More
As everyone focuses on coronavirus cases in California, Texas, and Florida, a new potential hot spot is brewing in the upper Midwest.... Read More
The Fed's iron grip on the fixed income market remains as strong as ever. Low volatility and range-bound trading continue.... Read More
Despite a massive rally in stocks since the March low, traders flocked to corporate, high yield, and aggregate bond funds in the second quarter.... Read More
Even if a vaccine or cure is immediately found, economies around the world are not likely to return to normal immediately. The economic damage is done, the public's psyche has been shattered, and it will take time to recover. We would argue traders understand this, which is one of many reasons central bank and government stimulus are impacting the markets more than vaccine rumors.... Read More
