To-date, 131 S&P 500 companies (26%) have reported earnings. 86% beat estimates, well above the average quarterly beat rate since 2009 is 71%. The growth rate is -17.24%.... Read More
COVID cases are spiking again in Europe. Deaths are now following. Rising infection counts continue to matter for the global economy.... Read More
New daily cases in Western Europe are now twice as high as their spring peak and well above the peaks seen over the summer in the United States. When the virus initially spread in March, European cases led U.S. cases by four to six weeks.... Read More
There is an old saying on Wall Street that "there are no bad bonds, only bad prices." It seems Quarles is proudly announcing the Fed will hold Treasuries at "bad prices." What ends this? Inflation.... Read More
The "red mirage" is the idea that election night ends with Trump ahead with more than 270 electoral college votes. As mail-in ballots begin being counted, however, several key states may flip until Biden is declared the winner.... Read More
The amount of outstanding private credit in the U.S. experienced a brief decline during the financial crisis, but government debt grew throughout the entire period. Both are now at new highs.... Read More
A look at outstanding amounts of Treasuries, corporates, agencies, munis and open market paper... Read More
Private pension funds have much smaller funding gaps than their government counterparts.... Read More
Defined benefit plans continue to be replaced by IRAs and defined contribution plans.... Read More
Why is the market so obsessed with fiscal stimulus? Because the reopening continues to stall.... Read More
Think of the Fed as a post and the bond market as a horse tied to that post. The horse will remain in place, tied to that post, unless spooked by inflation. The horse has the ability to rip that post from the ground and run wild. The post cannot stop a scared horse.... Read More
Europe's second COVID wave grows. Is a similar trend beginning in the U.S.? We also show the latest on the election betting markets and polls.... Read More
Our podcast series, Talking Data, offers timely insights into macro data and its impact on the economy and markets. In today's installment, Jim offers his insight on the risks a second COVID wave in Europe poses.... Read More
We have argued the rising coronavirus counts in Europe have been a big influence on US stocks' slide lately. The U.S. has not seen a similar magnitude rise yet, but the fear is the US will eventually follow Europe's path.... Read More
