Is our hope for a vaccine to be a "medical bailout" of the economy asking too much?... Read More
10-year yields are pushing four-month lows as the Fed has stepped up its POMO purchases to $20 billion/day. These purchases make the economic meaning of this move suspect.... Read More
We believe two forces are driving the dollar lower. One is an exhale from the world about owning non-dollar assets again. The second is rampant speculation by the hot money crowd.... Read More
Over the last month, high-frequency data shows signs that the economy's recovery is flattening out. This lines up with the increase in virus cases.... Read More
The small decline in the Fed's balance sheet has come in the form of decreased repo market support and decreased dollar swaps with foreign central banks. Their Treasury purchases continue, albeit at a slower pace.... Read More
As everyone focuses on coronavirus cases in California, Texas, and Florida, a new potential hot spot is brewing in the upper Midwest.... Read More
The Fed's iron grip on the fixed income market remains as strong as ever. Low volatility and range-bound trading continue.... Read More
Despite a massive rally in stocks since the March low, traders flocked to corporate, high yield, and aggregate bond funds in the second quarter.... Read More
Even if a vaccine or cure is immediately found, economies around the world are not likely to return to normal immediately. The economic damage is done, the public's psyche has been shattered, and it will take time to recover. We would argue traders understand this, which is one of many reasons central bank and government stimulus are impacting the markets more than vaccine rumors.... Read More
As existing home prices continue to trend higher, new home prices have stalled out over the last few years.... Read More
Foreigners bought a record amount of equities in May.... Read More
People are responding to the news of rising and falling case counts, often taking matters into their own hands before state governors make decisions on shutdowns.... Read More
The Fed's iron grip on the fixed income market remains as strong as ever. Low volatility and range-bound trading continue.... Read More
The concentration in the stock market is now at half-a-century extremes.... Read More
Investors that use funds are not flowing into the equity market as the historic market gyrations of the last several months have not changed their patterns. They are, however, flying into ETF that the Fed is purchasing, preferring to co-invest with the Fed. Stock flows are now the domain of short-term retail traders.... Read More
