Tag Archives: Markets
Markets
What Kind of Nominal Growth is Coming Next Year?
What Kind of Nominal Growth is Coming Next Year?
Posted By Jim Bianco
As booming raw industrial commodity prices point to higher nominal growth expectations in 2021, the dynamic between real growth and inflation will be a major influence on the returns of risk assets. Risk assets do not perform well when inflation is accelerating. We have not seen that in a generation. Our fear is inflation may rear its head in 2021.... Read More
Markets
The Average Maturity of Treasury Debt
The Average Maturity of Treasury Debt
Posted By Greg Blaha
The rush of T-bill issuance has helped push down the average maturity of U.S. Treasury debt. 37% of all debt is set to mature within the next year.... Read More
Markets
Small Cap Outperformance Hits Level Rarely Seen
Small Cap Outperformance Hits Level Rarely Seen
Posted By Greg Blaha
Over the past three months small cap stocks returned almost 17% more than large cap stocks, setting a level of outperformance rarely seen.... Read More
Markets
A Look at Regulatory Activity as 2020 Comes to a Close
A Look at Regulatory Activity as 2020 Comes to a Close
Posted By Greg Blaha
Trump held true on his promise to cut regulations when he took office in 2016. In the past few years, however, the number of pages in the Federal Register have again crept higher.... Read More
Markets
A Review of Foreign Net Purchases of U.S. Securities
A Review of Foreign Net Purchases of U.S. Securities
Posted By Greg Blaha
A look at foreign net sales and purchases of U.S. Treasuries, agencies, corporates and equities through October... Read More
Markets
Looking at Market Valuation
Looking at Market Valuation
Posted By Jim Bianco
The market, which has been priced for perfection lately, has taken a hit as news of a new strain of coronavirus emerges in the U.K.... Read More
Markets
The Economic Slowdown Continues
The Economic Slowdown Continues
Posted By Jim Bianco
Markets are looking past the near-term and hoping federal stimulus can help the economy. Since this is expected, markets are living in the second half of 2021, a period of mass vaccination and a return to some sort of new normal in which concerts, sporting venues, and restaurants will no longer have restrictions. This may very well be the case. But before we get there, the slowing economy is about to get worse. The federal government throwing money at everyone would help, but as of this writing, we still have no deal.... Read More
Markets
Comparing the Value of Credit in the U.S. to GDP
Comparing the Value of Credit in the U.S. to GDP
Posted By Greg Blaha
The amount of outstanding private credit in the U.S. experienced a brief decline during the financial crisis, but government debt grew throughout the entire period. Both are now at new highs.... Read More
Markets
Breaking Down Debt in the U.S.
Breaking Down Debt in the U.S.
Posted By Greg Blaha
A look at outstanding amounts of Treasuries, corporates, agencies, munis and open market paper... Read More
Markets
Funding Gaps at Public and Private Pensions
Funding Gaps at Public and Private Pensions
Posted By Greg Blaha
Private pension funds have much smaller funding gaps than their government counterparts.... Read More
Markets
Defined Benefit Plans Continue to Shrink
Defined Benefit Plans Continue to Shrink
Posted By Greg Blaha
Defined benefit plans continue to be replaced by IRAs and defined contribution plans.... Read More
Markets
Stimulus Coming, When Does It End?
Stimulus Coming, When Does It End?
Posted By Jim Bianco
We fear the market may have to force the government's hand in reducing stimulus spending. A bad market reaction, perhaps in the form of a big rise in inflation caused by too much stimulus, would be one such scenario. If nothing "bad" happens, why would the government stop regularly mail checks to everyone?... Read More
Markets
Excessive Optimism Is Changing Investing Patterns
Excessive Optimism Is Changing Investing Patterns
Posted By Jim Bianco
There is more than excessive optimism in the market. There is a structural shift in how retail investors put their money to work. They are buying stocks directly and buying options (leverage) to a degree never seen.... Read More
Markets
Beware of Consumer Confidence
Beware of Consumer Confidence
Posted By Jim Bianco
One should always consider the political nature of consumer confidence readings when judging the economy. This is probably even truer after a contested election.... Read More
Markets
Wall Street Strategists’ New Normal
Wall Street Strategists’ New Normal
Posted By Jim Bianco
Wall Street strategists are bullish and perceive record valuations to be the "new normal." The belief is the Fed will continue to suppress interest rates, allowing these valuations to persist.... Read More
Markets
Interest Rates and Nominal Growth
Interest Rates and Nominal Growth
Posted By Jim Bianco
Are interest rates heading higher on real growth or higher inflation expectations? Risk markets would respond very differently depending on the reason.... Read More