One should always consider the political nature of consumer confidence readings when judging the economy. This is probably even truer after a contested election.... Read More
Wall Street strategists are bullish and perceive record valuations to be the "new normal." The belief is the Fed will continue to suppress interest rates, allowing these valuations to persist.... Read More
Are interest rates heading higher on real growth or higher inflation expectations? Risk markets would respond very differently depending on the reason.... Read More
The public's shift from mutual funds and ETFs towards speculating in individual stocks and options continues without pause. Last week's options volume boomed to a new record. All signs suggest the mania is making new peaks.... Read More
Jim was on Bloomberg TV this morning talking about the Fed and what they should do at the December FOMC meeting.... Read More
The outflows from funds should not be seen as the result of investors de-risking. Rather, investing styles and preferences are changing.... Read More
Despite the markets "living in the second half of 2021," signs are emerging that the next few quarters will be a struggle. Analysts are not as optimistic about the return to normal.... Read More
AstraZeneca's sold off on news of a new vaccine with 70% efficacy. However, this new vaccine has a couple advantages to those offered by Pfizer and Moderna in recent weeks.... Read More
While vaccine news has provided a positive breath recently, infection counts continue to climb across the world. The response between now and the time the vaccine is widely distributed will be critical.... Read More
As another earnings season comes to a close, companies have once again successfully guided analysts' expectations low enough to ensure positive results. This is a game that has been perfected over the past decade.... Read More
Foreigners sold their third largest monthly sum of corporates on record, unloading $26.99 billion in September and a record $127.65 billion over the past year.... Read More
A big part of bank/financial stock performance is tied to the outlook of interest rates, spreads (net interest margins), and the reason why rates are moving (growth or inflation). We understand why higher rates are considered good for banks for now. But when/if this view flips to a belief that inflation is returning, rising rates will no longer benefit banks.... Read More
The market is starting to see a Fed hike on the distant horizon. This is how a shift in thinking begins. The driving reason for this change seems to be a resurgence of inflation over booming real growth.... Read More
