Elon Musk recently became the wealthiest person in the world. Zhong Shanshan continues to climb the list at an extraordinary clip, overtaking Warren Buffett to become the sixth richest person in the world.... Read More
If the 2020 economy was defined by what letter would best describe the rebound, 2021 will be about reflation versus inflation. ... Read More
How do strong momentum markets end? Too much money comes in at the end. The average investor's breakeven is so high that a typical correction wipes out any profit. As they exit, the momentum trade goes into reverse.... Read More
As booming raw industrial commodity prices point to higher nominal growth expectations in 2021, the dynamic between real growth and inflation will be a major influence on the returns of risk assets. Risk assets do not perform well when inflation is accelerating. We have not seen that in a generation. Our fear is inflation may rear its head in 2021.... Read More
The rush of T-bill issuance has helped push down the average maturity of U.S. Treasury debt. 37% of all debt is set to mature within the next year.... Read More
Over the past three months small cap stocks returned almost 17% more than large cap stocks, setting a level of outperformance rarely seen.... Read More
Trump held true on his promise to cut regulations when he took office in 2016. In the past few years, however, the number of pages in the Federal Register have again crept higher.... Read More
A look at foreign net sales and purchases of U.S. Treasuries, agencies, corporates and equities through October... Read More
The market, which has been priced for perfection lately, has taken a hit as news of a new strain of coronavirus emerges in the U.K.... Read More
Markets are looking past the near-term and hoping federal stimulus can help the economy. Since this is expected, markets are living in the second half of 2021, a period of mass vaccination and a return to some sort of new normal in which concerts, sporting venues, and restaurants will no longer have restrictions. This may very well be the case. But before we get there, the slowing economy is about to get worse. The federal government throwing money at everyone would help, but as of this writing, we still have no deal.... Read More
The amount of outstanding private credit in the U.S. experienced a brief decline during the financial crisis, but government debt grew throughout the entire period. Both are now at new highs.... Read More
A look at outstanding amounts of Treasuries, corporates, agencies, munis and open market paper... Read More
Private pension funds have much smaller funding gaps than their government counterparts.... Read More
Defined benefit plans continue to be replaced by IRAs and defined contribution plans.... Read More
We fear the market may have to force the government's hand in reducing stimulus spending. A bad market reaction, perhaps in the form of a big rise in inflation caused by too much stimulus, would be one such scenario. If nothing "bad" happens, why would the government stop regularly mail checks to everyone?... Read More
There is more than excessive optimism in the market. There is a structural shift in how retail investors put their money to work. They are buying stocks directly and buying options (leverage) to a degree never seen.... Read More