Banks' net income increased in the fourth quarter, largely due to a massive reduction in loan loss reserves.... Read More
If growth versus value is really about interest rates, then the market might not be thinking that reopening stocks are going to soar, as the reopening-to-disruptive ratio is not definitive in its reversal. If, however, the growth-to-value rotation is about interest rates, it is on the assumption that rising rates are being driven by "R" or relation/real growth and not I" or inflation.... Read More
Ben Breitholtz: Twitter: Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla B of A: ?We believe we are at a secular turning point for both inflation & interest rates,? with ?new central bank mandates, excess fiscal stimulus including UBI, less globalization, fading deflation from disruption, demographics... Read More
Jim Bianco: Measuring the old financial system versus the new one. Jim Bianco: What has worked in the stock market this year? Analyzing a company’s financial position and buying the weaker ones! Jim Bianco: Since June, all the stock... Read More
For quite a few years now, the high yield market has been driven by macro trading from options and ETFs. Maybe it is now returning to a market of high yield bonds in which credit is differentiated by issuers. Weaning this market off its macro dominance would be a positive development as it makes capital allocation much more efficient.... Read More
While the rapid rise in 10-year yields might be suggestive of a massive short in the Treasury market, an analysis of the data shows this is not really the case.... Read More
While the Fed continues to suggest the first rate hike won't occur until 2023 or later, the market is beginning to price in a hike as early as mid-2022.... Read More
It is often said a trend in bond yields continues until something breaks or the Fed is forced to change. To date, nothing has broken, but cracks are beginning to appear.... Read More
Bitcoins' volatility of late is standard fare for disruptive technologies. We would not be surprised if it has another 70% drawdown, followed by yet another new high.... Read More
Jim Bianco joined Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough for a special, in-depth conversation between two investing heavyweights on the current financial market and economic paradigm. This conversation originally aired live on Tuesday March 2, 2021.... Read More
If economists see little change in inflation expectations, maybe inflation is not priced into the markets to the degree many might believe.... Read More
The reflation (real growth)/inflation debate will continue. We still believe this will be resolved with the market pricing in higher levels of inflation later this year. The base effect rise in inflation will begin in coming months, which may offer a ready-made excuse to dismiss concerns over higher prices. The risk is not higher yields, but higher yields in a chaotic fashion, much like we saw last week.... Read More
Sovereign bond yields are soaring in developed countries and reflation (real growth) hopes are giving way to inflation fears. Central banks' yield curve control policies are being rejected, for now. ... Read More
In yesterday's testimony Chairman Powell tried to portray rising interest rates as a statement of confidence. Markets are mixed on this idea.... Read More
Rates are moving higher amid fears booming real growth will come with more inflation. The output gap can be filled by the proposed stimulus package, allowing inflation to rise.... Read More
Clearly valuation metrics are already stretched. However, traders can ignore valuations for quite a long period of time.... Read More
While the markets are pricing in a speedy return to normal, reality may come up short of these expectations. We fear the return of inflation more than most. There is a difference between relation and inflation. Right now the market sees reflation (aka real growth), but we believe this will morph into inflation later this year.... Read More