The long and short ends of the yield curve are moving in opposite directions. Typically yields stop rising when something breaks. Which end of the yield curve will break something?... Read More
Jim Bianco has decades of experience as a macro markets researcher. He's been leading his firm Bianco Research since 1990, which has family offices and traditional money managers as clients. He was at UBS and Lehman Brothers before that. He?s as TradFi as it gets, but recently, he?s been falling down the crypto rabbit hole ?hard. ... Read More
Financial Times: The return of the inflation spectre Martin Wolf – A spectre is haunting investors: the return of inflation. But is it a plausible threat? And what would it mean if it did return? Ben Breitholtz: Oh boy, the... Read More
Ben Breitholtz: Twitter: SentimenTrader @sentimentrader According to the ICI, equity mutual funds and ETFs enjoyed inflows of nearly $54 billion last week alone. That’s higher than any previous month in 26 years. So far in March, inflows total more than $75 billion. Tweet... Read More
Inflation continues to be the biggest economic story so far this year. Either the massive amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus produces inflation or it does not and MMT/UBI wins. Place your bets.... Read More
Peter Forbes: Larger than expected decline in new home sales. Severe weather in February a likely contributor and we already see signs that activity is picking up again in March. Regional declines were -37% for Midwest, -15% for South, -16%... Read More
With stimulus checks now being mailed out, several measures of short-term rates may be worth watching as barometers of potential trouble.... Read More
Wall Street forecaster Jim Bianco expects stocks to get a boost this spring because the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield will temporarily retreat. ?The near-term forecast is it?s oversold, and it?s probably due for a rally ? meaning that we would have falling rates,? the Bianco Research president told CNBC?s ?Trading Nation? on Friday.... Read More
Peter Forbes: TSA passenger volume on the rise. Latest Google search data show interest in more ambitious travel (air travel, theme parks, etc) rising steadily. Tweet Jim Bianco: John Authers has a good piece about the bond market today. ... Read More
Twitter: Rick Rieder @RickRieder We?re in the midst of witnessing #BondMarketHistory, as the peak to trough drawdown for the Barclays Long Treasury Index now exceeds -20% (not including today?s move), its worst #drawdown going back 40 years and meeting what many... Read More
Funding markets are under stress and negative rates are a possibility. On the other end of the curve, higher rates continue.... Read More
Twitter: Robin Brooks @RobinBrooksIIF The share of US debt held by foreigners has fallen to its lowest level since 2002 (lhs, blue). That’s not due to foreign selling, but rather that foreigners aren’t buying (rhs, pink), even as US debt... Read More
Given the struggles in Australia and Japan with yield curve control, should U.S. bond short sellers be afraid of the Fed?... Read More
Jay Powell has two issues to address today. Convince the market has benign inflation forecast is correct and what to do about plunging short rates. Both are going to be difficult.... Read More
Ben Breitholtz: Consumer spending by low-middle income households saw a large jump in vacation-related services into the end of February. Might help explain some of the out-performance across airlines as of late. The JETS ETF is up over 28% YTD.... Read More
Jim Bianco: CoT out for March 9. 2-year large speculators are big-time short. But the 10-year remains neutral (second panel) with asset managers (bottom panel) not at a rare short and hedge funds (third panel) moving aggressively long. To properly... Read More
Europe has been slow to roll out vaccines and COVID infection counts have been turning higher. The US, UK, and Israel have been more aggressive with vaccine distribution and their infection counts continue to fall.... Read More
